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Property Crime Fluctuations in King City, Missouri: A Small Town's Unique Trends
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
King City, Missouri, is a small Midwestern town with a population that has fluctuated over the years, reaching 856 residents in 2022. The city's property crime trends show significant variability, with total property crimes ranging from 0 to 9 annually between 2010 and 2016. During this period, the population decreased by 22%, from 1,098 in 2010 to 856 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have been inconsistent. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, rising to 5 in 2012, representing 0.02% of the state's burglaries. However, burglary rates dropped to zero in subsequent years with available data. The burglary rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2012 at 4.62, but then decreased to 0 by 2014. This volatility in burglary rates could be attributed to the small population size, where even minor changes in crime numbers can significantly impact rates.
Larceny-theft incidents have been sporadic in the city. There was 1 reported case in 2010, none in 2011, 1 in 2012, and 2 in 2015. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2015 at 1.89. Interestingly, the percentage of state larceny-theft remained at 0% throughout the recorded period, indicating that these incidents had minimal impact on statewide statistics.
Motor vehicle theft showed an unusual spike in 2011 with 5 reported cases, representing 0.04% of the state's motor vehicle thefts. This translates to a rate of 4.50 per 1,000 people. However, in other years, motor vehicle theft was either non-existent or minimal. The 2011 spike could be considered an anomaly given the overall low occurrence of this crime in other years.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero throughout the recorded period from 2010 to 2016. This suggests that arson has not been a significant concern for the city during this time frame.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and other factors, there appears to be a weak inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 794 per square mile in 2010 to 692 in 2016, property crimes showed some fluctuation but generally trended downward from 3 in 2010 to 0 in 2016. However, this correlation is not strong enough to draw definitive conclusions due to the limited data and small numbers involved.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the inconsistent nature of the data and the small numbers involved. However, based on the overall downward trend observed in the latter years of the available data, it's possible that property crime rates will remain low, potentially fluctuating between 0 and 3 incidents per year. This prediction assumes that the city's population and other socioeconomic factors remain relatively stable.
In summary, King City's property crime trends are characterized by low numbers and high variability, which is typical for small towns where a few incidents can significantly impact crime rates. The most notable discoveries include the sporadic nature of burglaries and larceny-thefts, an unusual spike in motor vehicle thefts in 2011, and the consistent absence of arson. These trends suggest that while property crime is not a persistent problem in the city, isolated incidents can occur, and law enforcement should remain vigilant despite the overall low crime rates.
