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Property Crime Trends in Arcadia, Missouri: A Model of Small-Town Safety
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Arcadia, Missouri, a small community with a population of 1,865 in 2022, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. Over the years from 2015 to 2022, the city experienced minimal property crime activity, with a total of only 4 reported incidents across this period. This remarkably low crime rate occurred against a backdrop of population fluctuation, with the city seeing a decrease from 2,023 residents in 2015 to 1,865 in 2022, representing an overall decline of 7.8%.
The burglary trend in the city shows exceptional stability, with zero reported incidents throughout the entire period from 2015 to 2022. This translates to a consistent rate of 0 burglaries per 1,000 residents, significantly outperforming typical urban crime rates. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to Arcadia remained at 0% throughout this period, indicating that the city has managed to effectively prevent this type of property crime.
Larceny-theft emerges as the only type of property crime reported in the city during this period. In 2015, there were no reported incidents, but this changed in 2016 with one case, followed by two cases in 2017. The rate then decreased to one incident in 2020, and finally to zero in 2022. At its peak in 2017, the larceny-theft rate was approximately 1.12 incidents per 1,000 residents. Despite these minor fluctuations, the larceny-theft rate remained exceptionally low, with the percentage of state larceny-thefts attributable to the city consistently at 0%, underscoring the minimal impact of these incidents on statewide statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in Arcadia maintained a perfect record of zero incidents from 2015 to 2022. This translates to a rate of 0 thefts per 1,000 residents and 0% of the state's motor vehicle thefts, highlighting the city's success in preventing this type of crime.
Similarly, arson cases were non-existent in Arcadia throughout the period under review. The city consistently reported 0 incidents per 1,000 residents and contributed 0% to the state's arson statistics, further emphasizing the community's safety in terms of property crimes.
An examination of correlations reveals a noteworthy relationship between property crime trends and home ownership rates. As the percentage of owner-occupied homes increased from 62% in 2019 to 76% in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in property crimes, with incidents dropping to zero by 2022. This suggests that higher rates of home ownership may contribute to community stability and reduced property crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests that Arcadia is likely to maintain its low crime rates. Given the consistent pattern of minimal property crime over the past years, coupled with the increasing trend in home ownership, it's projected that the city will continue to experience very low to zero incidents of property crime annually. This forecast assumes that current community dynamics and crime prevention strategies remain in place.
In summary, Arcadia demonstrates an exceptionally low and improving property crime profile. The most significant discovery is the city's ability to maintain near-zero property crime rates across all categories, particularly notable given the fluctuations in population. The correlation between increasing home ownership and decreasing crime rates suggests a stable, invested community. These trends position Arcadia as a model for small-town safety and effective community-based crime prevention.
