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Property Crime Trends in Pacific, Missouri: A Decade of Decline Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Pacific, Missouri, a small urban area covering 6.65 square miles, has experienced notable changes in property crime rates alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 39.5%, from 167 to 101 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 23.4%, from 6,636 to 8,192 residents, indicating a significant improvement in overall property crime rates relative to population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a marked decline over the years. In 2010, there were 17 burglaries, which peaked at 36 in 2012 before decreasing to 12 in 2022, representing a 29.4% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 2.56 in 2010 to 1.46 in 2022, a 42.9% reduction. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 0.05% in 2010, peaking at 0.12% in 2012, and settling at 0.09% in 2022. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies in preventing burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 144 in 2010 to 78 in 2022, a 45.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 21.7 in 2010 to 9.5 in 2022, a substantial 56.2% decrease. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.13% to 0.17% throughout the period. This significant reduction in larceny-theft rates indicates improved community vigilance and potentially more effective crime prevention strategies.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility but ultimately increased. In 2010, there were 6 incidents, which rose to 11 in 2022, an 83.3% increase. However, when adjusted for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents only increased slightly from 0.90 in 2010 to 1.34 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.02% and 0.13%, ending at 0.05% in 2022. This trend suggests that while the raw numbers increased, the city maintained a relatively low contribution to state totals.
Arson cases in the city were infrequent, with many years reporting zero incidents. The highest number of arsons reported was 2 in 2021, with a rate of 0.26 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to state arson cases peaked at 0.29% in 2021 but returned to 0% in 2022. Due to the low frequency of arson, it's difficult to establish a clear trend or draw significant conclusions about its impact on overall property crime rates.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As population density increased from 997 per square mile in 2010 to 1,231 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. The median income rose from $54,906 in 2013 to $60,670 in 2022, which coincided with the general decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that improved economic conditions contributed to reduced crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on current trends, burglaries and larceny-theft are expected to decrease further, while motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase. Arson cases are likely to remain infrequent and unpredictable.
In summary, Pacific has experienced a significant reduction in property crime rates despite population growth over the past decade. The most notable improvements have been in burglary and larceny-theft rates, while motor vehicle theft has shown a slight increase when adjusted for population growth. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and population density, suggest that the city has been successful in implementing effective crime prevention strategies and fostering community development. As the city continues to grow, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
