Property Crime Trends in Cassville, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations and Arson Concerns
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
DATA SOURCE
Cassville, located in Missouri, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, set against a backdrop of changing population dynamics. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city increased by 4.78%, rising from 230 to 241 incidents. During this same period, the population saw a slight increase of 0.87%, growing from 5,726 to 5,776 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant fluctuations over time. In 2010, there were 29 burglaries reported, which decreased to 21 by 2022, marking a 27.59% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 5.06 in 2010 to 3.64 in 2022. However, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.16% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they became a larger portion of the state's total. This suggests that burglary reduction efforts in the city may have been more effective compared to other areas in the state.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw a slight increase over the years. In 2010, there were 197 larceny thefts reported, which rose to 202 by 2022, a 2.54% increase. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 residents increased marginally from 34.40 in 2010 to 34.97 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state larceny thefts rose from 0.17% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2022, indicating that larceny theft in the city became a more significant portion of the state's total over time.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed a substantial increase. In 2010, there were 4 motor vehicle thefts reported, which rose to 18 by 2022, a 350% increase. The motor vehicle theft rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.70 in 2010 to 3.12 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts grew from 0.03% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2022, suggesting that this crime type became a more pressing issue for the city relative to the state over time.
Arson cases in the city have shown dramatic fluctuations. In 2010, there were no reported arson cases. By 2022, this number had increased to 11, representing a significant rise. The arson rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0 in 2010 to 1.90 in 2022. Most strikingly, the city's share of state arson cases grew from 0% in 2010 to 1.79% in 2022, indicating that arson became a particularly severe issue for the city compared to the rest of the state.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. For instance, as median income increased from $37,359 in 2013 to $46,859 in 2021, the total property crime incidents decreased from 259 to 201 during the same period. However, this trend reversed in 2022, suggesting other factors may be at play.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends suggests that by 2029 (five years from now), Cassville may see a continued increase in motor vehicle thefts and arson cases if current trends persist. Larceny theft is predicted to remain relatively stable, while burglaries may continue to decrease slightly.
In conclusion, Cassville has experienced varied property crime trends over the past decade, with significant increases in motor vehicle theft and arson being particularly noteworthy. The city's share of state property crimes has generally increased across all categories, suggesting that local law enforcement and community initiatives may need to focus on addressing these rising trends, particularly in relation to the state's overall crime landscape.
