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Property Crime Trends in Lincoln, Alabama: A Decade of Significant Reduction
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lincoln, Alabama, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. With a population of 11,334 in 2022 and spanning 25.67 square miles, this small city has experienced notable fluctuations in its property crime rates. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 317 to 164, representing a 48.3% reduction. This decline occurred alongside a modest population growth of 3.2% during the same period, from 10,987 to 11,334 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a substantial decline over the years. In 2010, there were 80 burglaries reported, which decreased to 26 in 2022, marking a 67.5% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 7.28 in 2010 to 2.29 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.47% in 2015 before dropping to 0.23% in 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, the city's improvement has been more pronounced compared to the state average in recent years.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant downward trend. The number of incidents dropped from 208 in 2010 to 104 in 2022, a 50% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents declined from 18.93 in 2010 to 9.18 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.3% for most of the period, with a slight decrease to 0.22% in 2022. This indicates that the city's larceny-theft reduction has been largely in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends present a more complex picture. While the number of incidents increased slightly from 29 in 2010 to 34 in 2022, the rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively stable, moving from 2.64 to 3.00. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose dramatically from 0.49% in 2010 to 0.51% in 2022, peaking at 0.64% in 2021. This suggests that while the absolute numbers haven't changed significantly, the city has become a hotspot for this type of crime relative to the rest of the state.
Arson data for the city is limited, with figures only available for 2021 and 2022. In 2021, there were 3 reported cases of arson, which decreased to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 0.26 to 0.18 during this period. The city's contribution to state arson cases also decreased from 2.27% to 0.38%, indicating a significant improvement relative to the state average.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The decline in property crimes coincides with a steady increase in median income, from $48,708 in 2013 to $64,344 in 2022. This suggests that improved economic conditions may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 83% in 2020 to 88% in 2022, which could be associated with lower property crime rates due to increased community stability and investment.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the current trends, we can expect burglary rates to potentially decrease further, possibly reaching as low as 15-20 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is likely to continue its downward trend, potentially dropping to around 80-90 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft rates may potentially stabilize or slightly decrease, hovering around 30-35 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, with potentially 1-2 incidents annually.
In summary, Lincoln has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The improvements in economic indicators and home ownership rates appear to correlate with these positive trends. However, the relative increase in motor vehicle thefts compared to state averages suggests an area for focused intervention. As the city continues to grow and develop, maintaining these positive trends while addressing specific challenges will be crucial for ensuring the safety and well-being of its residents.
