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Property Crime Trends in Alabaster, Alabama: Larceny-Theft Rises Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Alabaster, located in Alabama, has experienced significant changes in property crime trends alongside population growth over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 38.3%, from 515 to 712 incidents. During this same period, the population grew by 13.3%, from 30,544 to 34,610 residents, indicating that crime rates have outpaced population growth.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 22 burglaries reported, which increased to a peak of 86 in 2011. However, by 2022, burglaries had dramatically decreased to just 14 incidents. This represents a 36.4% decrease from 2010 to 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people fell from 0.72 in 2010 to 0.40 in 2022, a significant improvement in public safety. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over time, from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, the city's contribution to state totals remained relatively stable.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, has shown substantial variability. In 2010, there were 458 larceny-theft incidents, which increased to 585 in 2012 before declining to 253 in 2021. However, 2022 saw a sharp increase to 678 incidents. This represents a 48% increase from 2010 to 2022. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 residents increased from 15.0 in 2010 to 19.6 in 2022, indicating a rising trend even when accounting for population growth. Notably, the city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents rose dramatically from 0.63% in 2010 to 1.45% in 2022, suggesting a disproportionate increase compared to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has fluctuated but ultimately decreased over the observed period. In 2010, there were 35 reported incidents, which decreased to 16 in 2021 before rising slightly to 20 in 2022. This represents a 42.9% decrease from 2010 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.15 in 2010 to 0.58 in 2022, indicating an improvement in this area of property crime. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.59% in 2010 to 0.30% in 2022, suggesting local improvements outpaced state-level trends.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: one case in 2011 and one in 2021. This scarcity of data makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or draw significant conclusions about arson in the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between the increase in property crimes and population density, which rose from 1,165 per square mile in 2010 to 1,320 in 2022. Additionally, the median income increased from $73,805 in 2013 to $82,676 in 2022, which coincided with fluctuations in property crime rates, suggesting a complex relationship between economic factors and crime.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the recent upward trend in overall property crimes. Based on the sharp increase observed in 2022, if this trend persists, the city could see property crimes exceed 800 incidents annually by 2029. However, this projection should be interpreted cautiously, as crime trends can be influenced by various factors and interventions.
In summary, Alabaster has experienced mixed trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglary and motor vehicle theft have shown encouraging decreases, larceny-theft has risen significantly, driving an overall increase in property crimes. The city's growing population and changing demographics appear to be factors in these trends. As Alabaster continues to evolve, addressing the rise in larceny-theft while maintaining the positive trends in other property crime categories will be crucial for ensuring community safety and well-being.
