Motor vehicle theft in the city remained relatively low but variable. There were 3 incidents in 2010, dropping to 1 in 2011, peaking at 5 in 2016, and settling at 4 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated accordingly, from 1.20 in 2010 to 1.62 in 2021. Interestingly, despite the low numbers, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.07% in 2021, indicating a slight rise in the city's contribution to this crime category relative to the state.

Arson data for the city is limited, with only two years reporting incidents: 1 case in 2011 and 1 in 2021. The rate per 1,000 residents for these years was 0.40 and 0.40, respectively. Notably, the city's percentage of state arson cases jumped significantly from 0.18% in 2011 to 0.76% in 2021, suggesting a disproportionate increase in the city's contribution to statewide arson statistics, despite the low absolute numbers.

Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density remained relatively stable, ranging from 229 to 274 people per square mile between 2010 and 2022. During this period, the median income showed a general upward trend, rising from $36,421 in 2013 to $43,702 in 2022. This increase in median income coincided with a general decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates.

The percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 75% in 2013 to 79% in 2022, which aligns with the overall decrease in property crimes. This could indicate a potential correlation between higher homeownership rates and lower property crime rates.

Racial demographics remained fairly constant, with the white population consistently comprising 95-97% of the total from 2013 to 2022. Given the minimal changes in racial composition, no strong correlations can be drawn between race distribution and property crime trends in this case.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crimes if current socioeconomic trends persist. The city's improving economic indicators and stable homeownership rates suggest a potential further reduction in property crimes by 10-15% over the next five years.

In summary, Brilliant has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, with some fluctuations in specific categories. The most significant improvements were seen in larceny-theft, while motor vehicle theft and arson showed slight increases relative to state percentages. The correlations between rising median income, increased homeownership, and declining crime rates provide a positive outlook for the city's future safety and security landscape.