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Property Crime Trends in Brookside, Alabama: A Tale of Fluctuations and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Brookside, located in Alabama, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, alongside significant population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased from 1 to 13, representing a 1200% increase. During this same period, the population decreased slightly from 1,683 in 2010 to 1,636 in 2022, a 2.79% decline.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable variation. In 2011, there were 11 burglaries reported, which dropped to 1 in 2021, and then increased to 3 in 2022. This represents a 72.73% decrease from 2011 to 2022. When considering population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.13 in 2011 to 1.83 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglaries fluctuated, from 0.03% in 2011 to 0.01% in 2021, before rising again to 0.03% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased overall, they remain a concern relative to the state's total.
Larceny-theft incidents have shown a less dramatic change. In 2011, there were 12 reported cases, which decreased to 7 in 2021, and then increased to 9 in 2022. This represents a 25% decrease from 2011 to 2022. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people decreased from 6.69 in 2011 to 5.50 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, at 0.01% in 2011 and 0.02% in both 2021 and 2022. This indicates that larceny-theft rates have remained fairly consistent relative to the state's total.
Motor vehicle theft trends show an interesting pattern. There was 1 reported case in 2010, which dropped to 0 in 2011, increased to 2 in 2021, and then decreased to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people remained relatively low, at 0.59 in 2010 and 0.61 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2021, before decreasing to 0.01% in 2022. This suggests that motor vehicle theft, while low in absolute numbers, has become a slightly larger concern relative to the state's total.
Arson data is limited, with no reported cases in the available years. This suggests that arson is not a significant issue in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime trends and racial demographics. As the white population percentage increased from 66% in 2018 to 81% in 2022, property crimes also increased from 10 in 2021 to 13 in 2022. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between median income and property crime. As median income rose from $54,000 in 2019 to $63,544 in 2021, property crimes remained relatively stable. However, when median income dropped to $53,970 in 2022, property crimes increased to 13.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a moderate increase in overall property crimes. Based on the current trends, burglaries may stabilize around 3-4 cases per year, larceny-theft could increase to 10-12 cases annually, and motor vehicle theft might remain at 1-2 cases per year.
In summary, Brookside has experienced a significant increase in property crimes over the past decade, despite a slight population decrease. While burglary rates have generally decreased, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft have shown fluctuations. The correlation between racial demographics, median income, and property crime rates suggests that socioeconomic factors play a role in crime trends. As the city moves forward, addressing these underlying factors may be crucial in managing and potentially reducing property crime rates.
