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Property Crime Trends in Leadington, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Leadington, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2018, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, reaching a peak of 35 incidents in 2016 before declining to 15 in 2018, representing a 57.14% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 677 in 2010 to 781 in 2022, a 15.36% increase, adding complexity to the crime rate analysis.
Burglary rates in the city showed considerable variability. In 2010, there was 1 burglary, which increased to 10 in 2014, representing a 900% increase. This spike translated to a burglary rate of 13.37 per 1,000 residents in 2014, compared to 1.48 per 1,000 in 2010. The percentage of state burglaries attributable to the city peaked at 0.05% in 2016, indicating a disproportionate contribution relative to its population. By 2018, burglaries had decreased to 6, or 7.61 per 1,000 residents, suggesting an improvement in home security or law enforcement efficacy.
Larceny-theft incidents exhibited less dramatic fluctuations. From 6 cases in 2010, they rose to a high of 16 in 2016 before declining to 6 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 20.23 in 2016 and fell to 7.61 in 2018. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively low, reaching a maximum of 0.02% in 2016. This trend suggests that while petty theft was a concern, it did not escalate as severely as other property crimes.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed concerning spikes. From 4 incidents in 2010, it rose to 8 in 2016, an increase of 100%. The rate per 1,000 residents peaked at 10.11 in 2016, compared to 5.91 in 2010. Notably, the city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts reached 0.05% in 2016, indicating a disproportionate issue relative to its size. By 2018, incidents had decreased to 3, or 3.81 per 1,000 residents, suggesting improved vehicle security or targeted law enforcement efforts.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero throughout the period from 2010 to 2018. This absence of reported arsons is notable and may reflect effective fire prevention measures or potential underreporting.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density increased from 742 per square mile in 2010 to 856 in 2022, property crimes initially rose but then declined, suggesting other factors at play. Median income, available from 2013 onwards, showed some correlation with crime rates. For instance, the peak in property crimes in 2016 coincided with the lowest median income of $35,446, while the subsequent crime decrease aligned with income recovery to $46,833 in 2018.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and motor vehicle theft are projected to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching 4-5 incidents annually. Larceny-theft may stabilize around 8-10 cases per year. However, these projections assume consistent economic conditions and law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Leadington has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. The most critical discoveries include the sharp rise and subsequent decline in burglaries and motor vehicle thefts, the relatively stable larceny-theft rates, and the absence of reported arsons. These trends, viewed in the context of population growth and economic fluctuations, suggest a complex interplay of factors influencing property crime in the city. The projected stabilization of crime rates, if realized, would indicate a positive trajectory for community safety and economic stability in Leadington.
