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Violent Crime Trends in Carl Junction, Missouri: A Case Study of Suburban Safety Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Carl Junction, located in Missouri, has experienced notable fluctuations in its violent crime rates over the years, set against a backdrop of steady population growth. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes varied significantly, with the most recent data showing 15 violent crimes in 2022, down from 36 in 2021. This represents a 58.3% decrease in violent crime over one year. Meanwhile, the population grew from 8,347 in 2010 to 8,974 in 2022, an increase of 7.5% over the same period.
Examining murder trends, Carl Junction has consistently reported zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This stability in the absence of murders is noteworthy, especially considering the population growth. The murder rate per 1,000 people has remained at zero, and the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics throughout this period.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years. In 2010, there were 3 reported rapes, which represented 0.28% of the state's total. The city then saw no reported rapes from 2011 to 2020. However, in 2021 and 2022, rape cases reemerged with 3 and 2 incidents respectively, accounting for 0.14% and 0.09% of the state's total. The rape rate per 1,000 people in 2022 was approximately 0.22, showing a slight increase from zero in previous years but still relatively low.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal. Only one robbery was reported in 2011, representing 0.02% of the state's total. For all other years between 2010 and 2022, no robberies were reported. This indicates a consistently low robbery rate per 1,000 people, effectively zero for most of the period under review.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults has varied significantly, from a low of 0 in 2016 and 2018 to a high of 33 in 2021. In 2022, there were 13 aggravated assaults, representing 0.07% of the state's total. The rate of aggravated assault per 1,000 people in 2022 was approximately 1.45, down from 3.59 per 1,000 in 2021 but higher than many previous years.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 1,525 per square mile in 2010 to 1,639 per square mile in 2022, there was a general upward trend in violent crimes, particularly aggravated assaults. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout all years, as evidenced by the fluctuations in crime rates.
The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, with a slight decrease from 94% in 2013 to 90% in 2022. During this period, there was a small increase in diversity, particularly in the Hispanic population (from 1% to 2%) and those identifying as two or more races (from 1% to 6%). These demographic shifts do not appear to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Carl Junction may continue to fluctuate but are likely to remain relatively low compared to state averages. By 2029, the city might see a slight increase in aggravated assaults, potentially reaching around 20-25 incidents per year, while other forms of violent crime are expected to remain low or non-existent.
In summary, Carl Junction has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate despite population growth. The absence of murders, rare occurrences of robberies, and fluctuating but generally low rates of rape and aggravated assault characterize the city's crime landscape. The most significant concern appears to be aggravated assaults, which have shown the most variability. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining vigilance in crime prevention strategies will be crucial to preserving the overall safety and quality of life for its residents.
