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Violent Crime Trends in Lake Tapawingo: A Study of Safety Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Lake Tapawingo, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in violent crime rates, with a total of 12 reported incidents over this period. The population grew significantly during this time, increasing from 995 in 2010 to 1,416 in 2022, representing a 42.3% growth.
Examining murder trends, Lake Tapawingo has maintained a consistent record of zero murders from 2010 to 2022. This statistic remains unchanged despite the population growth, resulting in a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents throughout the period. The city's contribution to the state's murder rate has consistently been 0%, indicating no impact on Missouri's overall murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. The data shows only two reported cases: one in 2017 and another in 2020. In 2017, with a population of 953, the rape rate was approximately 1.05 per 1,000 residents, representing 0.05% of the state's total rape cases. In 2020, with an estimated population of 1,185, the rate was about 0.84 per 1,000 residents, again accounting for 0.05% of state cases. These isolated incidents, while concerning, do not indicate a consistent trend.
Robbery statistics for Lake Tapawingo show no reported incidents from 2010 to 2022. Similar to murder rates, the robbery rate per 1,000 residents and the city's contribution to state robbery statistics remained at 0% throughout the period, despite population growth.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The first reported cases appeared in 2016 with 3 incidents, representing 0.02% of the state's total. This trend continued with 2 cases in 2017 and 2018, and 3 cases again in 2019, consistently accounting for 0.01-0.02% of state totals. The rate per 1,000 residents fluctuated: approximately 2.91 in 2016, 2.10 in 2017, 1.97 in 2018, and 2.85 in 2019. Notably, no aggravated assaults were reported in 2020 or 2022, indicating a potential improvement in recent years.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 3,108 per square mile in 2010 to 4,423 in 2022, the city saw its first violent crime reports. The emergence of violent crimes coincided with the population surpassing 1,000 residents in 2016. Additionally, there seems to be a relationship between median rent and crime rates. As median rent rose from $570 in 2013 to $1,410 in 2022, violent crime incidents became more frequent, possibly indicating socioeconomic pressures.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential slight increase in aggravated assaults if population growth continues at its current rate. However, given the city's overall low crime rates and recent improvements, the total number of violent crimes is expected to remain below 5 per year.
In summary, Lake Tapawingo has maintained remarkably low violent crime rates despite significant population growth. The absence of murders and robberies, coupled with infrequent rape cases, paints a picture of a relatively safe community. The primary concern has been aggravated assaults, which showed a brief increasing trend but have recently declined. These findings suggest that while the city has faced some challenges with violent crime as it has grown, it has managed to maintain a generally safe environment for its residents.
