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Property Crime Trends in Lanagan: Small Missouri Town Faces Unexpected Challenges
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Lanagan, a small community in Missouri, has experienced notable changes in property crime trends alongside significant population growth in recent years. From 2016 to 2018, the total number of property crimes increased from 2 to 4, representing a 100% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 932 to 910, indicating a slight decrease of 2.36%. This juxtaposition of rising crime rates against a relatively stable population warrants a closer examination of the individual crime categories and their implications for the community.
Burglary trends in the city show a fluctuating pattern. In 2016, there was 1 reported burglary, which increased to 2 in 2017, but then decreased back to 1 in 2018. When considering the population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents rose from 1.07 in 2016 to 2.25 in 2017, before declining to 1.10 in 2018. The percentage of state burglaries attributed to this city increased from 0% in 2016 to 0.01% in both 2017 and 2018, suggesting a slight rise in the city's contribution to statewide burglary statistics.
Larceny-theft incidents showed an upward trend, starting with no reported cases in 2016, increasing to 5 in 2017, and then slightly decreasing to 3 in 2018. The rate per 1,000 residents followed a similar pattern, peaking at 5.62 in 2017 before settling at 3.30 in 2018. Interestingly, despite these changes, the city's contribution to statewide larceny-theft remained at 0% throughout this period, indicating that these local increases did not significantly impact state-level statistics.
Motor vehicle theft in the city saw a brief spike in 2016 and 2017, with 1 reported case each year, before dropping to 0 in 2018. This translates to rates of 1.07 and 1.12 per 1,000 residents in 2016 and 2017, respectively. The city's contribution to statewide motor vehicle theft was 0.01% in both 2016 and 2017, dropping to 0% in 2018, reflecting the volatility of this crime category in a small population.
Arson cases in the city were non-existent until 2018, when 2 cases were reported. This sudden increase resulted in a rate of 2.20 per 1,000 residents in 2018. More notably, these cases accounted for 0.29% of all arson cases in the state that year, a significant contribution for a small town and potentially indicating a localized issue that warrants attention.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors, a strong relationship emerges with population density. As the population density increased from 991 per square mile in 2016 to 967 in 2018, there was a corresponding rise in total property crimes from 2 to 4. This suggests that as the city became more densely populated, it experienced a higher incidence of property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential increase in overall property crimes. Based on the historical data and current trends, the model suggests that by 2029, the city may see an average of 6-8 property crimes annually. This projection takes into account the rising population density and the sporadic nature of crime incidents in small communities.
In summary, Lanagan has experienced a complex evolution of property crime patterns from 2016 to 2018. The most significant discoveries include the sharp rise in arson cases in 2018, contributing disproportionately to state statistics, and the overall increase in property crimes despite minor population fluctuations. The correlation between rising population density and increased property crimes suggests that as the city continues to grow, it may face heightened challenges in maintaining public safety and preventing property-related offenses.
