Robbery has been virtually non-existent in Gerald, with no reported cases throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2022. This absence of robberies has resulted in a consistent 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics and a robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people. The lack of robberies suggests a relatively safe environment for businesses and residents in terms of this particular crime category.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated significantly, with peaks of 10 incidents in 2016 and 5 incidents in 2010. The rate per 1,000 people reached its highest in 2016 at 3.7 per 1,000 residents. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault statistics has generally been low, ranging from 0% in years with no incidents to 0.06% in 2016. The most recent data from 2022 shows 3 aggravated assaults, representing 0.02% of the state's total.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and other factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate correlation between population density and violent crime rates. For instance, the peak in violent crime in 2016 (12 incidents) coincided with a population density of 1,829 people per square mile. Conversely, years with lower population densities, such as 2013 and 2014 (1,697 and 1,791 respectively), saw no reported violent crimes.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a potential stabilization of violent crime rates. Based on the recent trends, the city might expect to see an average of 2-4 violent crimes per year, primarily consisting of aggravated assaults. However, given the city's small size, even minor fluctuations can significantly impact the overall crime rate.

In summary, Gerald has experienced relatively low levels of violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The absence of murders and robberies, combined with infrequent rape incidents, suggests a generally safe environment. However, the fluctuations in aggravated assaults and the city's small population size mean that even a few incidents can have a significant impact on crime rates. As the city moves forward, maintaining community engagement and preventive measures will be crucial in sustaining and potentially improving its safety record.