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Property Crime Trends in Jamestown, Tennessee: A Decade of Fluctuations in a Small Urban Area
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Jamestown, located in Tennessee, has experienced fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade, alongside notable population changes. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 48.48%, from 99 to 51 incidents. During this same period, the population decreased by 2.61%, from 4,336 to 4,223 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown significant variability. In 2010, there were 9 burglaries, which increased to a peak of 21 in 2012, before declining to just 1 incident in 2016. By 2022, burglaries increased again to 11. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 2.08 in 2010 to 2.60 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.08% in 2022, indicating a growing proportion of Tennessee's burglaries occurring in this area despite population decline.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed a general downward trend. In 2010, there were 88 larceny thefts, peaking at 150 in 2012, before declining to 39 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 20.30 in 2010 to 9.23 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts decreased from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.05% in 2022, suggesting a faster decline in larceny thefts compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been relatively stable with some fluctuations. There were 2 incidents in 2010, peaking at 6 in both 2012 and 2020, before decreasing to 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents remained relatively low, changing from 0.46 in 2010 to 0.24 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased slightly from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.01% in 2022.
Arson cases in Jamestown have been rare, with only one incident reported in 2010 and another in 2011. Since 2012, no arson cases have been reported. This suggests effective fire prevention measures or possibly underreporting of such incidents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $17,626 in 2013 to $25,476 in 2022, overall property crime incidents decreased from 106 to 51. Additionally, there seems to be a weak correlation between population density and property crime rates, with both showing general declines over the period.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, it's estimated that by 2029 (five years from now), Jamestown may see a further reduction in overall property crimes to approximately 35-40 incidents annually, assuming current trends continue.
In summary, Jamestown has experienced a general decline in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in larceny theft. This trend, coupled with rising median incomes, suggests improving socioeconomic conditions. However, the recent uptick in burglaries and the city's increasing share of state burglaries warrant attention from local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure this doesn't develop into a long-term trend.
