Motor vehicle theft showed a more complex pattern. The number of incidents increased from 74 in 2010 to 142 in 2022, a 91.9% rise. The rate per 1,000 people also increased from 1.34 to 2.28. However, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, peaking at 2.88% in 2016 before decreasing to 0.80% in 2022. This suggests that while motor vehicle theft increased in the city, it may have increased more rapidly in other parts of the state in recent years.

Arson cases in the city remained relatively low but showed some fluctuation. The number of incidents remained stable at 5 in both 2010 and 2022, with some variation in between. The rate per 1,000 people slightly decreased from 0.09 to 0.08 due to population growth. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 0.66% to 0.93%, indicating that arson rates in the city decreased less than the state average.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's population density increased from 1,793 people per square mile in 2010 to 2,017 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved crime prevention or detection. Additionally, the median income rose from $47,046 in 2013 to $56,888 in 2022, potentially indicating improved economic conditions that could contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in total property crimes. Based on historical data, we can project that burglaries may continue to decrease, potentially reaching around 100-120 incidents per year by 2029. Larceny-theft is likely to stabilize or show a slight decrease, potentially settling around 1,200-1,300 incidents annually. Motor vehicle theft rates may plateau or show a slight increase, potentially reaching 150-160 incidents per year. Arson cases are expected to remain low, likely fluctuating between 3-7 incidents annually.

In summary, Cleveland has shown a general improvement in property crime rates over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. This positive trend, occurring alongside population growth and increased median income, suggests an overall enhancement in the city's safety and economic conditions. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts and the city's increasing share of state property crimes in some categories indicate areas that may require continued attention from law enforcement and community leaders to maintain and improve public safety in the coming years.