Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. The number of incidents increased from 3 in 2010 to 6 in 2015, then decreased to 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people fluctuated accordingly, from 0.64 in 2010 to 1.15 in 2015, and down to 0.39 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts has generally remained low, peaking at 0.08% in 2015 and dropping to 0.01% in 2022. These fluctuations suggest periodic challenges in vehicle security that have been addressed over time.

Arson cases in the city have been rare, with most years reporting either zero or one incident. The rate per 1,000 people has remained consistently low, never exceeding 0.22. However, the city's share of state arson cases has been relatively high compared to other crimes, ranging from 0% to 0.19% in 2022. This suggests that while arson is infrequent, when it does occur, it represents a significant portion of the state's total arson cases.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $46,328 in 2013 to $61,269 in 2017, property crimes decreased from 92 to 75 incidents. Additionally, there's a noticeable correlation between the increasing diversity of the population and the overall decrease in property crimes. The percentage of white residents decreased from 89% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, coinciding with the general downward trend in property crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglaries are expected to stabilize at around 5-7 incidents annually, while larceny theft may continue to decline slowly, potentially reaching around 45-50 incidents per year. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain low, likely not exceeding 3-4 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain rare, with 0-1 incidents per year.

In summary, Newbern has made significant strides in reducing property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny theft. The trends suggest a combination of effective law enforcement strategies, improved community vigilance, and possibly socioeconomic factors contributing to this positive change. As the city continues to grow and diversify, maintaining these low crime rates will be crucial for the community's safety and quality of life.