Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2014, there were 3 incidents, which increased to 23 in 2017, before decreasing to 10 in 2022. This represents a 233% increase from 2014 to 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.58 in 2014 to 1.93 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.03% and 0.21% during this period. This trend suggests a need for targeted interventions to address vehicle security.

Arson cases have been sporadic, with no reported incidents in most years. However, there was a spike in 2022 with 3 reported cases, representing 0.56% of state arsons. This sudden increase warrants attention from local law enforcement and fire prevention services.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $34,139 in 2014 to $44,743 in 2022, total property crimes decreased. This suggests that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crime rates.

Applying predictive models based on current trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Rocky Top could see a further reduction in overall property crimes. Burglaries and larceny-thefts are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching 5-6 and 30-35 incidents respectively. Motor vehicle thefts might stabilize around 8-10 cases annually. However, the recent spike in arson cases introduces uncertainty, and close monitoring will be crucial.

In conclusion, Rocky Top has made significant strides in reducing property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts. The correlation with rising median incomes suggests that continued economic growth could further enhance public safety. However, the volatility in motor vehicle thefts and the recent arson spike highlight areas requiring ongoing vigilance and targeted strategies to maintain and improve the overall positive trend in property crime reduction.