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Property Crime Trends in Henrietta, Missouri: A Small City's Fluctuating Landscape
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Henrietta, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. Over the period from 2010 to 2018, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, ranging from a low of 1 incident in 2010, 2011, and 2013 to a peak of 8 incidents in 2016. Concurrently, the population exhibited variability, starting at 653 in 2010, peaking at 666 in 2011, and settling at 617 in 2022, representing a slight overall decline of 5.5% over the 12-year span.
Burglary trends in the city show notable variations. The number of burglaries ranged from 0 to 3 incidents annually, with the highest occurrences in 2012 and 2017. When examining burglaries per 1,000 residents, the rate peaked at 4.8 per 1,000 in 2017, up from 0 in previous years. The city's contribution to state burglary figures remained minimal, reaching a maximum of 0.01% in 2012, 2016, and 2017. These fluctuations suggest sporadic burglary activity rather than a consistent pattern, potentially indicating targeted incidents rather than systemic issues.
Larceny-theft incidents in the city also demonstrated variability. The highest number of larceny-thefts was recorded in 2016 with 6 incidents, while several years saw only 1 or no incidents. The rate per 1,000 residents reached its peak at 10.6 in 2016, a significant increase from 1.5 per 1,000 in 2010. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained low, with a maximum of 0.01% in 2016. This pattern suggests that while larceny-theft is not a persistent problem, there have been occasional spikes that warrant attention.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been rare, with only one year (2015) reporting any incidents. In 2015, there were 2 motor vehicle thefts, equating to a rate of 3.7 per 1,000 residents. This isolated occurrence represented 0.01% of the state's motor vehicle thefts for that year. The infrequency of these incidents suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant ongoing concern for the city.
Arson cases in the city have been extremely rare, with only one reported incident in 2014. This single case represented 0.12% of the state's arson incidents for that year and equated to a rate of 1.7 per 1,000 residents. The isolated nature of this event indicates that arson is not a recurring issue in the city.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and other demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. The peak in property crimes (8 incidents) in 2016 coincided with a population density of 950 people per square mile, which was higher than in some previous years. However, the correlation is not consistently strong across all years, suggesting that other factors may also influence crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029, which is five years from now), we anticipate a continuation of the fluctuating pattern observed in recent years. Based on historical data, we project that annual property crime incidents will likely range between 2 and 6 cases per year, with potential sporadic spikes not exceeding 10 incidents in any given year.
In summary, Henrietta's property crime landscape is characterized by low overall numbers with occasional spikes in specific categories. The most significant trend has been the variability in larceny-theft, while other categories like burglary, motor vehicle theft, and arson have remained consistently low or sporadic. These patterns, coupled with the city's small population, suggest that individual incidents can have a notable impact on crime rates. Moving forward, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies could be effective in managing and potentially reducing property crime occurrences in this small Missouri city.
