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Property Crime Trends in Jackson, Missouri: A Decade of Improvement Amid Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Jackson, Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city decreased significantly from 358 to 150, representing a 58.1% reduction. This substantial decline in property crime occurred alongside a population growth of 16.4%, from 17,352 in 2010 to 20,205 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a marked decrease over the years. In 2010, there were 50 reported burglaries, which dropped to just 14 in 2022, a 72% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.88 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.69 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the absolute number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. It peaked at 0.22% in 2012 before declining to 0.11% in 2022, suggesting that the city's burglary reduction outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Jackson, also saw a significant decline. The number of incidents fell from 298 in 2010 to 123 in 2022, a 58.7% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 17.17 in 2010 to 6.09 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft cases remained relatively stable, hovering around 0.2% throughout the period, with a slight decrease to 0.16% by 2022.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. The number of incidents fluctuated between 7 and 27 over the years, with 13 reported in 2022. This represents a 30% increase from 2010 to 2022, despite the overall decrease in property crimes. The rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 0.58 in 2010 to 0.64 in 2022. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.08% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2021 before dropping to 0.05% in 2022, indicating significant year-to-year variations.
Arson data for the city is limited, with many years showing no reported incidents. However, there were 3 arsons reported in 2018 and 2 in 2021, representing 0.44% and 0.29% of state arsons respectively. The sporadic nature of these incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between the city's rising median income and declining property crime rates. The median income increased from $55,698 in 2013 to $66,771 in 2022, coinciding with the overall drop in property crimes. Additionally, the relatively stable and high homeownership rate, averaging around 72% throughout the period, may have contributed to the reduction in property crimes, particularly burglaries.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029, Jackson could see its total property crimes further reduced to approximately 100-120 incidents annually. Burglaries might stabilize around 10-12 cases per year, while larceny-theft could decrease to about 90-100 incidents. Motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate but are likely to remain under 20 cases annually.
In summary, Jackson has experienced a significant improvement in its property crime landscape over the past decade. The substantial reductions in burglary and larceny-theft, coupled with the city's economic growth and stable homeownership rates, paint a picture of a community that has made notable strides in enhancing public safety. While challenges remain, particularly with the volatility of motor vehicle thefts, the overall trend suggests a positive trajectory for the city's property crime situation in the coming years.
