Robbery trends in Ava have remained relatively low and stable. There were no reported robberies in most years, with only one incident each in 2012 and 2018. The robbery rate per 1,000 people has fluctuated between 0 and 0.24 (in 2012). The city's contribution to state robbery statistics has been minimal, reaching a maximum of 0.02% in those years with single incidents. This suggests that robbery is not a significant concern for the city, although occasional incidents do occur.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents has fluctuated, peaking at 9 in 2018 and 2020, but dropping to just 1 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people has correspondingly varied, reaching a high of 2.04 per 1,000 in 2018 and falling to 0.26 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics has ranged from 0.01% to 0.06% over the years, with the most recent figure at 0.01% in 2022. This significant decrease in 2022 could indicate improved community safety measures or changes in reporting practices.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates in the city. As the population density increased from 1,120 per square mile in 2010 to 1,177 in 2022, there were corresponding fluctuations in violent crime rates. However, the relationship is not strictly linear, suggesting other factors also influence crime rates.

Racial distribution shows a strong correlation with crime trends. The city has maintained a predominantly white population, consistently above 96% throughout the studied period. This lack of diversity may influence crime patterns and reporting, though it's important to note that correlation does not imply causation.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that by 2029, Ava may experience a slight increase in overall violent crime rates. The model suggests potential increases in rape and aggravated assault incidents, while murder and robbery rates are expected to remain low. However, these predictions should be interpreted cautiously due to the city's small size and the variability in year-to-year crime statistics.

In summary, Ava has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the past decade, with notable fluctuations in specific categories. The absence of murders, low robbery rates, and recent decrease in aggravated assaults are positive indicators. However, the spike in rape incidents in 2022 is a concern that merits attention. The city's crime trends appear to be influenced by its population density and homogeneous racial composition, underlining the complex interplay between demographic factors and crime rates in small urban areas.