Motor vehicle theft in Hendersonville showed a more complex pattern. While the number of incidents decreased from 45 in 2010 to 38 in 2022, a 15.6% reduction, the rate per 1,000 residents improved more significantly from 0.85 to 0.57 due to population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.43% to 0.21% over this period, indicating that the city has become relatively safer in this category compared to the rest of the state.

Arson cases in Hendersonville have remained relatively low throughout the period, with some fluctuation. The number of arsons decreased from 11 in 2010 to 3 in 2022, a 72.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.21 to 0.05. The city's share of state arsons varied considerably, from a high of 1.45% in 2010 to 0.56% in 2022, suggesting that arson incidents, while rare, can have a significant impact on the city's standing relative to state figures due to their low frequency.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income in Hendersonville. As the median income increased from $76,849 in 2013 to $88,249 in 2022, property crime rates generally decreased. Similarly, there is a correlation between the slight increase in homeownership rates (from 71% in 2013 to 72% in 2022) and the decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher stakes in the community contribute to lower crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates in Hendersonville if current socioeconomic trends persist. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize at around 0.5 per 1,000 residents, while larceny-theft may continue to decline but at a slower rate, potentially reaching about 5.5 per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft rates are likely to fluctuate but remain below 0.6 per 1,000 residents, and arson cases are expected to remain rare, with rates below 0.1 per 1,000 residents.

In summary, Hendersonville has made significant strides in reducing property crime rates across all categories over the past decade, outpacing its substantial population growth. The improvements in public safety, coupled with rising median incomes and stable homeownership rates, paint a picture of a city that has successfully managed its growth while enhancing the quality of life for its residents. As Hendersonville continues to evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for its ongoing development and attractiveness to current and prospective residents.