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Property Crime Trends in Greenfield, Missouri: A Tale of Stability Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Greenfield, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, starting at 20 in 2010 and ending at 20 in 2022, with variations in between. This represents no overall change in the total number of property crimes over the 12-year period. During this same timeframe, the population decreased from 1,863 in 2010 to 1,535 in 2022, a decline of approximately 17.6%.
Burglary trends in the city show notable fluctuations. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries, which decreased to 4 by 2022, a 50% reduction. When considering the population change, the burglary rate per 1,000 people actually decreased from 4.29 in 2010 to 2.61 in 2022. The city's contribution to state burglary statistics remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.01% to 0.04% over the years, with the highest percentage (0.04%) occurring in 2019.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed variation. Starting at 11 cases in 2010, it increased to 16 by 2022, a 45.5% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 people increased from 5.90 in 2010 to 10.42 in 2022. The city's share of state larceny-theft cases remained low, fluctuating between 0.01% and 0.02% throughout the period.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has been relatively rare. There was 1 case in 2010, and 0 cases reported in 2022. The highest number was 2 cases in 2011 and 2012. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.54 in 2010 to 0 in 2022. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle theft statistics remained minimal, never exceeding 0.02% of the state total.
Arson incidents were infrequent in the city. There were no reported cases in most years, with only 1 case each reported in 2011, 2012, and 2016. This sporadic occurrence makes it difficult to establish a clear trend. The city's contribution to state arson statistics peaked at 0.12% in 2016 but was 0% in most other years.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density decreased from 1,639 per square mile in 2010 to 1,350 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 people increased slightly. There's also a weak positive correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income rose from $24,738 in 2013 to $30,902 in 2022, there was a slight increase in property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect the overall property crime rate to remain relatively stable or show a slight increase. Burglary rates are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching 2-3 incidents per year. Larceny-theft may continue to be the predominant property crime, potentially increasing to 18-20 cases annually. Motor vehicle theft is expected to remain low, with 0-1 cases per year. Arson incidents are likely to remain sporadic and infrequent.
In summary, Greenfield has experienced a complex evolution in its property crime landscape from 2010 to 2022. While the overall number of property crimes remained the same, the composition changed, with a decrease in burglaries offset by an increase in larceny-theft. The city's contribution to state crime statistics remained consistently low across all categories. These trends, coupled with the declining population, suggest a need for targeted strategies to address larceny-theft while maintaining the positive progress made in reducing other types of property crime.
