Robbery rates in the city have fluctuated but shown an overall increase. In 2010, there were 2 robberies, representing 0.04% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had quadrupled to 8 robberies, accounting for 0.26% of the state's total. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents increased from 0.096 in 2010 to 0.379 in 2022. This trend suggests that robbery has become a more significant concern for the community over time.

Aggravated assault, the most common violent crime in the city, has seen considerable fluctuation. In 2010, there were 88 cases, representing 0.62% of the state's total. By 2022, this number had decreased to 61 cases, accounting for 0.35% of the state's total. However, the rate per 1,000 residents only marginally decreased from 4.21 in 2010 to 2.89 in 2022. The percentage of state aggravated assaults attributed to the city has generally decreased over time, suggesting that while it remains a concern, the city's contribution to state totals has diminished.

Examining correlations between violent crime trends and demographic factors reveals some notable patterns. There appears to be a moderate positive correlation between the increase in population density and the rise in certain violent crimes, particularly rape and robbery. As the population density increased from 1,452 per square mile in 2010 to 1,466 in 2022, these crimes saw an uptick. Additionally, there seems to be a weak negative correlation between the percentage of white residents and violent crime rates. As the white population decreased from 92% in 2013 to 87% in 2022, there was a general increase in violent crime incidents.

Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029) suggests a potential continuation of the current trends. Based on the data, we can expect murder rates to remain low but with potential for occasional spikes, rape incidents to continue their upward trend, potentially reaching 25-30 cases annually, robbery rates to stabilize around 8-10 incidents per year, and aggravated assaults to fluctuate between 60-80 cases annually.

In summary, Kirksville has experienced a complex evolution of violent crime patterns over the past decade. While some crime categories like aggravated assault have shown improvement, others such as rape and robbery have worsened. The city's changing demographics and increasing population density appear to have some influence on these trends. As Kirksville continues to grow and change, addressing these crime trends, particularly the rising rape incidents, should be a priority for local law enforcement and community leaders to ensure the safety and well-being of its residents.