Robbery incidents in Belton have remained relatively stable over the observed period. In 2010, there were 14 robberies, and in 2022, there were 9, showing a slight decrease. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.57 in 2010 to 0.35 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery cases fluctuated between 0.15% and 0.45% over the years, with no clear trend. This suggests that while robbery is not increasing, it remains a persistent issue in the community.

Aggravated assault cases have shown the most dramatic increase among violent crimes in Belton. In 2010, there were 30 reported cases, which more than doubled to 64 by 2022, a 113% increase. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 1.23 in 2010 to 2.48 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault cases also increased from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.37% in 2022. This significant rise in aggravated assaults is a major contributor to the overall increase in violent crimes and represents a growing concern for public safety.

When examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in violent crimes and the slight increase in population density, which rose from 1,719 people per square mile in 2010 to 1,813 in 2022. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the rise in violent crimes and changes in racial demographics. The percentage of white residents decreased from 82% in 2013 to 80% in 2022, while the percentage of Black residents increased from 4% to 6% during the same period. However, it's crucial to note that correlation does not imply causation, and these demographic shifts alone do not explain the increase in violent crime.

Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), Belton could see approximately 120-130 violent crimes annually if current trends continue. This forecast suggests a potential 24-34% increase from the 2022 figures, with aggravated assaults likely to contribute the most to this rise.

In summary, Belton has experienced a significant increase in violent crimes over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most concerning trends are the sharp rises in rape cases and aggravated assaults. While robbery rates have remained relatively stable and murder rates fluctuate without a clear trend, the overall increase in violent crimes poses a growing challenge for the community. The correlation with population density and demographic changes suggests that the city may need to adapt its law enforcement and community support strategies to address these evolving dynamics and work towards reversing the upward trend in violent crimes.