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Property Crime Trends in Geraldine, Alabama: A Decade of Decline Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Geraldine, Alabama presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, with a peak of 33 incidents in 2018 and a low of 12 in 2022, representing a 63.6% decrease over this period. Concurrently, the population grew from 4,045 in 2010 to 4,404 in 2022, an 8.9% increase, adding complexity to the crime rate analysis.
Burglary rates in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which rose to 12 in 2011, then dropped back to 2 in 2012 and 2017. The rate peaked again at 8 in 2018 before declining to 2 in 2022. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.49 in 2010 to 0.45 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.05% during this period, with the highest percentage occurring in 2018. This volatility suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also demonstrated significant variations. From 13 incidents in 2010, it rose to 26 in 2012, then declined to 8 in 2017 and 2021, before remaining steady at 8 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 3.21 in 2010 to 1.82 in 2022, indicating an overall improvement despite population growth. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.01% and 0.03%, suggesting local trends generally aligned with state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in the city showed notable fluctuations. From 5 incidents in 2010, it dropped to zero in 2012, then rose again to 10 in 2018, before settling at 2 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 1.24 in 2010 to 0.45 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts varied widely, from 0% in 2012 to a high of 0.12% in 2018, indicating periods of heightened local activity compared to state trends.
Arson data for the city is largely unavailable, with only two years reporting: zero incidents in 2011 and 2021. This lack of data makes it challenging to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The fluctuations in property crime rates appear to have a moderate inverse relationship with median income. For instance, as the median income rose from $45,140 in 2013 to $57,728 in 2021, overall property crime rates generally decreased. However, this correlation is not consistent throughout the entire period, suggesting other factors are also at play.
There's also a notable correlation between changes in racial composition and property crime rates. As the white population percentage increased from 85% in 2013 to 91% in 2021, there was a general downward trend in property crimes. However, this relationship is complex and should not be interpreted as causal without further investigation.
Applying predictive models based on recent trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), the city may see a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are expected to stabilize at low levels, while larceny-theft may continue to be the predominant property crime, albeit at reduced rates compared to the early 2010s.
In conclusion, Geraldine has experienced a general downward trend in property crime rates over the past decade, despite population growth. This improvement, particularly notable in the reduction of burglaries and larceny-thefts, suggests effective local law enforcement strategies and community engagement. However, the fluctuations in crime rates and the city's varying contributions to state crime figures indicate a need for continued vigilance and adaptive crime prevention measures to maintain and further improve public safety in the coming years.
