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Violent Crime Trends in Ashland, Alabama: A Decade of Fluctuation and Recent Improvement
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Ashland, located in Alabama, has experienced notable fluctuations in violent crime rates over the past decade, alongside changes in its population. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of violent crimes increased from 3 to 11, representing a 266.67% increase. During the same period, the population decreased slightly from 4,911 to 4,434, a 9.71% reduction.
The murder rate in this city has remained consistently at zero from 2010 to 2022, with no reported cases throughout this period. This stability is particularly noteworthy given the population changes, maintaining a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 residents. The percentage of state murders attributable to the city has also remained at 0% throughout this time frame, indicating that the city has not contributed to the state's murder statistics.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported cases in most years, with only two cases reported in 2011 and one case each in 2015, 2016, and 2017. The rape rate per 1,000 residents peaked in 2011 at 0.47, dropping to 0.22 in 2015 and 2016, and further to 0.22 in 2017. The percentage of state rapes attributable to the city fluctuated accordingly, reaching a high of 0.21% in 2011 and dropping to 0.08% and 0.09% in subsequent years with reported cases.
Robbery trends in the city have been minimal, with only one reported case in each of the years 2012, 2013, 2017, and 2018. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents during these years ranged from 0.22 to 0.24. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics was consistently low, peaking at 0.04% in 2017.
Aggravated assault has shown the most significant changes among violent crimes in the city. The number of cases increased from 3 in 2010 to a peak of 51 in both 2017 and 2018, before decreasing to 11 in 2022. The aggravated assault rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.61 in 2010 to 11.03 in 2017, then declined to 2.48 in 2022. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics increased from 0.05% in 2010 to 0.46% in 2017, before dropping to 0.1% in 2022.
There appears to be a correlation between the rise in aggravated assaults and changes in racial demographics. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 79% in 2013 to 74% in 2021, there was a corresponding increase in aggravated assaults. However, this correlation weakened in 2022 when the white population increased to 78% while aggravated assaults decreased.
Applying predictive models to forecast violent crime trends for the next seven years (up to 2029), we anticipate a potential stabilization or slight decrease in aggravated assaults, assuming current demographic trends continue. The murder rate is expected to remain at zero, while rape and robbery incidents are likely to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Ashland has experienced significant fluctuations in violent crime rates, particularly in aggravated assaults, over the past decade. While murder rates have remained at zero, other violent crimes have shown varying patterns. The city's contribution to state crime statistics has generally been low, with the exception of aggravated assaults during peak years. These trends, coupled with demographic shifts, suggest a complex interplay between population characteristics and crime rates in this small Alabama town.
