Loading Content...
Thomasville, Alabama: Property Crime Trends Amidst Population Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Thomasville, located in Alabama, has experienced notable shifts in property crime trends alongside fluctuations in its population over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased by 54.5%, from 189 to 86 incidents. During this same period, the city's population declined by 30.8%, from 7,364 to 5,093 residents.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 58 burglaries reported, which dropped to just 7 in 2022, representing an 87.9% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 7.88 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.37 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries also decreased dramatically, from 0.25% in 2010 to 0.06% in 2022. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or changes in local law enforcement strategies.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased, though less drastically than burglaries. The number of larceny-thefts fell from 119 in 2010 to 70 in 2022, a 41.2% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 16.16 in 2010 to 13.74 in 2022. Interestingly, while the absolute number of larceny-thefts decreased, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, slightly decreasing from 0.16% in 2010 to 0.15% in 2022. This suggests that while the city has made progress in reducing larceny-thefts, the improvement is roughly in line with state-wide trends.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. There were 12 incidents in 2010, which decreased to 9 in 2022, a 25% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents actually increased slightly from 1.63 in 2010 to 1.77 in 2022, due to the population decrease outpacing the reduction in thefts. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.2% in 2010, dropping to 0.07% in 2021, and then rising to 0.13% in 2022. This volatility may indicate changing patterns in criminal activity or law enforcement focus.
Arson data for the city is limited, with only sporadic reporting. In 2011, there were 2 reported arsons, representing 0.36% of state arsons. The most recent data from 2022 shows 1 arson incident, accounting for 0.19% of state arsons. Given the limited data, it's difficult to draw meaningful conclusions about arson trends in the city.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 843 per square mile in 2010 to 583 in 2022, overall property crime incidents also fell. This suggests that the reduction in population density may have contributed to lower crime rates. Additionally, there seems to be a correlation between the racial composition and crime rates. As the percentage of white residents increased from 55% in 2013 to 62% in 2018, property crime rates generally decreased. However, this trend reversed slightly in subsequent years as the white population percentage decreased to 52% in 2022, coinciding with a small uptick in property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on the observed trends, it's projected that by 2029 (five years from now), property crime rates in Thomasville may continue to decrease slightly. Burglaries are expected to remain low, possibly stabilizing around 5-7 incidents per year. Larceny-theft is predicted to continue its gradual decline, potentially reaching around 60-65 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts may fluctuate but are likely to remain in the range of 7-10 incidents per year.
In conclusion, Thomasville has experienced a significant overall reduction in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, with particularly notable decreases in burglaries and larceny-thefts. These improvements have occurred against a backdrop of population decline and changing demographics. The city's share of state property crimes has generally decreased, indicating that local crime reduction efforts may have been more effective than the state average. Moving forward, if current trends continue, Thomasville may see further modest improvements in its property crime rates, potentially enhancing the overall quality of life for its residents.
