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Property Crime Trends in Fairlawn, Ohio: A Study of Declining Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Fairlawn, Ohio presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends from 2010 to 2022. During this period, the city experienced a slight decrease in total property crimes from 331 to 316, representing a 4.5% reduction. Simultaneously, the population grew by 4%, from 11,055 to 11,497, indicating a potentially positive trend in crime reduction relative to population growth.
The burglary rate in Fairlawn has seen a significant decline over the analyzed period. Reported burglaries dropped from 10 in 2010 to just 2 in 2022, an 80% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 0.90 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 0.17 per 1,000 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained constant at 0.01%, suggesting that while local efforts may have been effective in reducing burglaries, this trend was consistent with state-wide improvements.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in Fairlawn, showed a slight decrease from 311 incidents in 2010 to 308 in 2022, a 1% reduction. However, when considering the population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 28.13 in 2010 to 26.79 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's percentage of state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating that while the local rate improved, it outperformed the state average.
Motor vehicle theft in Fairlawn decreased from 10 incidents in 2010 to 6 in 2022, a 40% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 0.90 to 0.52 over this period. Despite this local improvement, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.06% to 0.03%, suggesting that state-wide efforts to combat this crime may have been even more effective.
Arson rates remained consistently at zero for both 2010 and 2022, with no reported incidents and no contribution to state totals. This stability in arson rates speaks positively about fire safety and prevention measures in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $72,612 in 2013 to $75,647 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in overall property crime rates. This suggests a potential negative correlation between income levels and property crime incidence. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 65% in 2019 to 72% in 2022 coincided with the continued low crime rates, potentially indicating a stabilizing effect of higher owner-occupancy on community safety.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall declining trend. Based on the historical data, we can project that by 2029, total property crimes could decrease by another 5-10%, potentially reaching around 285-300 incidents annually. Burglaries are expected to remain low, possibly stabilizing at 1-2 cases per year. Larceny-theft may see a further slight decrease to around 290-300 incidents annually. Motor vehicle thefts are projected to remain stable or decrease slightly, potentially averaging 4-5 cases per year by 2029.
In summary, Fairlawn has demonstrated a positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade, outpacing its population growth. The most significant improvements have been seen in burglary and motor vehicle theft rates, while larceny-theft has shown more modest declines. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and homeownership rates, paint a picture of a community that is becoming safer and more stable. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining these positive trends will be crucial for ensuring the ongoing safety and well-being of its residents.
