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Property Crime Trends in Madeira, Ohio: A Decade of Improvement Amidst Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Madeira, located in Ohio, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2011 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated, with a notable decrease from 51 incidents in 2011 to 31 in 2021, representing a 39.2% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 9,293 in 2011 to 10,685 in 2021, an increase of 15%. This divergence between declining crime rates and growing population warrants a closer examination of specific property crime categories.
Burglary trends in the city show a significant decline over time. In 2011, there were 4 burglaries reported, which increased to 8 in 2012 and 2013, but then dropped to 5 in 2020 and 0 in 2021. This represents a 100% decrease from 2011 to 2021. When adjusting for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 0.43 in 2011 to 0 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, peaking at 0.02% in 2013 and 2020, before dropping to 0% in 2021. This trend suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies targeting burglaries.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also showed a downward trend. Incidents decreased from 47 in 2011 to 24 in 2021, a 48.9% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 5.06 in 2011 to 2.25 in 2021. Despite this decrease, the city's share of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 0.02% to 0.04% over the years. This suggests that while larceny-theft has decreased locally, it has done so at a rate similar to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed more volatility. From 0 incidents in 2011, it increased to 4 in 2012, dropped to 1 in 2013, rose again to 4 in 2020, and further to 7 in 2021. This represents a significant increase over the decade. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0 in 2011 to 0.66 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0% in 2011 to 0.04% in 2021, indicating a growing concern relative to state trends.
Arson incidents were rare, with only one reported case in 2013, representing 0.07% of state arsons that year. In all other reported years, there were no arson incidents. This suggests that arson is not a significant concern for the city.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. The city's median income rose from $101,539 in 2013 to $133,631 in 2021, an increase of 31.6%. This period coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible negative correlation between income levels and property crime rates. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts despite increasing incomes indicates that this correlation doesn't hold for all types of property crime.
Population density increased from 2,772 people per square mile in 2011 to 3,188 in 2021. This 15% increase in density did not correspond with an increase in overall property crime, suggesting that the city has managed its growth without a proportional increase in criminal activity.
The racial composition of the city remained relatively stable, with the white population decreasing slightly from 86% in 2013 to 84% in 2022. This minor change in racial demographics does not appear to have a strong correlation with property crime trends.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of the overall downward trend in burglaries and larceny-thefts. However, motor vehicle thefts may continue to rise if current trends persist. The total number of property crimes is projected to stabilize around 30-35 incidents annually, barring any significant changes in socioeconomic factors or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Madeira has experienced a general decline in property crimes over the past decade, particularly in burglaries and larceny-thefts, despite population growth. The rise in median income and effective management of increasing population density may have contributed to this positive trend. However, the increase in motor vehicle thefts presents a challenge that may require targeted interventions. These trends, when viewed in the context of the city's demographic changes, suggest that Madeira has maintained a relatively safe environment for its residents while experiencing economic growth and diversification.
