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Property Crime Trends in East Helena, Montana: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
East Helena, Montana, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2021, the total number of property crimes fluctuated significantly, with a notable increase from 27 in 2010 to 33 in 2021, representing a 22.2% increase. During this same period, the population grew from 2,082 in 2010 to 2,188 in 2021, a 5.1% increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable volatility. In 2010, there were 2 burglaries, which remained consistent in 2011. However, the number peaked at 8 in 2017, representing a 300% increase from 2010. The burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.96 in 2010 to 3.44 in 2017, before decreasing to 1.37 in 2021. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated dramatically, from 0.11% in 2010 to a high of 0.41% in 2019, before settling at 0.2% in 2021. This volatility suggests periodic spikes in burglary activity that may be related to specific local factors or incidents.
Larceny theft has been the most prevalent property crime in the city. In 2010, there were 24 incidents, which decreased to 9 in 2015, but then rose sharply to 49 in 2018 – a 104.2% increase from 2010. The larceny theft rate per 1,000 people rose from 11.53 in 2010 to 21.35 in 2018, before decreasing to 13.25 in 2021. The city's contribution to state larceny theft increased from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.43% in 2018, settling at 0.25% in 2021. These fluctuations suggest periods of increased opportunity or organized theft activities, followed by potential law enforcement crackdowns or community prevention efforts.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been particularly volatile. From 1 incident in 2010, it peaked at 13 in 2019 – a 1200% increase. The rate per 1,000 people surged from 0.48 in 2010 to 6.18 in 2019, before dropping to 0.46 in 2021. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose dramatically from 0.13% in 2010 to 0.95% in 2019, then fell to 0.05% in 2021. This extreme variability might indicate sporadic activities of organized theft rings or changes in local economic conditions affecting vehicle security.
Arson incidents were consistently reported as zero throughout the period, suggesting either an absence of such crimes or potential underreporting.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 513 per square mile in 2010 to 585 in 2022, property crimes generally trended upward, peaking when density was highest. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the percentage of owner-occupied housing and property crime rates. As owner occupancy decreased from 74% in 2013 to 64% in 2017, property crimes increased, suggesting that higher renter populations might be associated with increased property crime risk.
Applying predictive models based on historical trends, it's projected that by 2029, East Helena may experience a slight increase in overall property crimes, potentially reaching around 60 incidents annually. Larceny theft is expected to remain the dominant form of property crime, potentially accounting for 70-75% of all incidents. Burglary and motor vehicle theft rates are predicted to stabilize, with potential fluctuations based on economic conditions and law enforcement strategies.
In summary, East Helena has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade, with larceny theft being the predominant concern. The correlation between population density, housing occupancy, and crime rates suggests that future urban planning and community development strategies could play a crucial role in crime prevention. As the city continues to grow, maintaining a balance between development and community safety will be paramount in shaping its future crime landscape.
