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Belgrade, Montana: Property Crime Trends Amid Rapid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Belgrade, located in Montana, has experienced significant population growth and fluctuating property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the population increased from 9,661 to 14,516, representing a 50.3% growth. During this period, total property crimes fluctuated, starting at 220 in 2010, dropping to a low of 160 in 2013, and returning to 214 in 2022, showing a slight overall decrease of 2.7% despite the substantial population increase.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decline over time. In 2010, there were 21 burglaries, which peaked at 28 in 2012 before steadily decreasing to 12 in 2022, marking a 42.9% reduction. When adjusted for population growth, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents decreased even more dramatically, from 2.17 in 2010 to 0.83 in 2022, a 61.8% drop. The city's share of state burglaries also declined from 1.13% in 2010 to 0.77% in 2022, indicating that burglary rates improved more in Belgrade than in Montana overall.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, showed relative stability with some fluctuations. The number of incidents was 190 in 2010, dropped to a low of 133 in 2013, and then rose to 183 in 2022, representing a slight overall decrease of 3.7%. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 19.67 in 2010 to 12.61 in 2022, a 35.9% reduction. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts decreased slightly from 1.65% to 1.47% over this period, suggesting a marginally better improvement compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends showed an increase over time. In 2010, there were 9 incidents, which rose to 19 in 2022, marking a 111.1% increase. However, when adjusted for population, the rate per 1,000 residents increased more modestly from 0.93 to 1.31, a 40.9% rise. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 1.13% to 1.22%, indicating that this crime type grew slightly faster in Belgrade compared to Montana overall.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively low in number. The highest recorded incidents were 7 in 2016, with several years reporting zero cases. Due to the low numbers, calculating meaningful trends or rates per 1,000 residents is challenging. The city's share of state arson cases fluctuated significantly, ranging from 0% to 6.93%, reflecting the volatile nature of this rare crime type in smaller communities.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between population density and property crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,240 per square mile in 2010 to 3,365 in 2022, the overall property crime rate per 1,000 residents decreased. This suggests that as the city became more densely populated, it may have benefited from increased natural surveillance and community cohesion, potentially deterring property crimes.
Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029, Belgrade may see a continued slight decrease in overall property crime rates, with burglary and larceny-theft likely to decline further. However, motor vehicle theft rates may continue to rise moderately. The total number of property crimes might increase slightly due to population growth, but the per capita rate is expected to continue its downward trend.
In summary, Belgrade has demonstrated resilience in the face of rapid population growth, with most property crime rates decreasing when adjusted for population. The significant reduction in burglary rates and the relative stability of larceny-theft, despite population increases, are particularly noteworthy. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for potential focus in crime prevention strategies. These trends reflect a changing urban landscape where increased density appears to correlate with lower property crime rates, suggesting that managed growth may contribute to enhanced community safety.
