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Property Crime Stability Amid Growth: Three Forks, Montana's Unique Trend
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Three Forks, located in Montana, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. In 2010, the city recorded a total of 10 property crimes. By 2022, the population had grown from 1,529 to 2,029, an increase of 32.7% over this period.
Burglary trends in the city show a relatively low occurrence, with 2 incidents reported in 2010. This translates to a rate of 1.31 burglaries per 1,000 residents. The burglary rate represented 0.11% of the state's total burglaries, indicating a minimal contribution to Montana's overall burglary statistics. Given the limited data available, it's challenging to discern a clear trend over time. However, the low number of incidents suggests that burglary is not a major concern for the community.
Larceny-theft appears to be the most prevalent property crime in the city, with 7 incidents reported in 2010. This equates to a rate of 4.58 thefts per 1,000 residents. Larceny-theft accounted for 0.06% of the state's total, suggesting that the city's contribution to Montana's larceny-theft statistics is relatively small. The higher number of larceny-theft incidents compared to other property crimes indicates that it may be the primary focus for local law enforcement efforts.
Motor vehicle theft in the city was minimal, with only 1 incident reported in 2010. This translates to a rate of 0.65 thefts per 1,000 residents. Motor vehicle theft represented 0.13% of the state's total, which, while slightly higher than the city's share of other property crimes, still indicates a low overall impact on Montana's motor vehicle theft statistics. The low incidence suggests that motor vehicle theft is not a significant issue for the community.
Arson incidents were not reported in the available data for 2010, with 0 incidents and 0% of the state's total. This absence of arson cases suggests that it is not a prevalent crime in the city, which is a positive indicator for public safety.
When examining correlations between property crime trends and other demographic factors, a notable relationship emerges with population density. As the population density increased from 1,062 per square mile in 2010 to 1,410 per square mile in 2022, it's possible that this growth may have influenced property crime rates. However, without year-over-year crime data, it's difficult to establish a definitive correlation.
The median income in the city rose significantly from $44,208 in 2013 to $70,373 in 2022, an increase of 59.2%. This substantial economic improvement could potentially have a mitigating effect on property crime rates, as improved economic conditions often correlate with reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) is challenging due to the limited historical data available. However, if we consider the city's growing population and improving economic conditions, we might cautiously predict a relatively stable or slightly decreasing trend in property crime rates, assuming other factors remain constant.
In summary, Three Forks demonstrates a relatively low incidence of property crimes, with larceny-theft being the most common type. The city's contribution to Montana's overall property crime statistics is minimal. The significant population growth and substantial increase in median income over the past decade suggest a community in transition, which may have implications for future crime trends. Continued monitoring and proactive community engagement will be crucial in maintaining and potentially improving the city's property crime situation in the coming years.
