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Property Crime Trends in Claxton, Georgia: A Decade of Declining Incidents Amid Population Changes
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Claxton, located in Georgia, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in total property crimes, with a notable decrease from 138 incidents in 2010 to 113 in 2022, representing an 18.1% reduction. During this same period, the population declined from 4,431 in 2010 to 3,882 in 2022, a 12.4% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant downward trend over the years. In 2010, there were 32 burglaries, which decreased to 24 in 2022, a 25% reduction. When considering population changes, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents actually decreased from 7.22 in 2010 to 6.18 in 2022. Interestingly, despite this local decrease, the city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.09% in 2010 to 0.26% in 2022, suggesting a potentially more pronounced decline in burglaries at the state level.
Larceny-theft incidents have also decreased over the observed period. In 2010, there were 99 larceny-theft cases, which dropped to 82 in 2022, a 17.2% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents slightly decreased from 22.34 in 2010 to 21.12 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft incidents increased from 0.1% in 2010 to 0.12% in 2022, indicating a relatively stable position in relation to state trends.
Motor vehicle theft in the city shows a fluctuating pattern. From 7 incidents in 2010, it remained relatively stable with 7 incidents in 2022. However, due to population decrease, the rate per 1,000 residents increased slightly from 1.58 in 2010 to 1.80 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.06% to 0.07% over this period, suggesting a relatively consistent trend compared to state levels.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic. Most years reported zero incidents, with occasional occurrences. In 2022, there was 1 reported case of arson, representing 0.36% of state arson incidents. Given the rarity of these events, it's difficult to establish a meaningful trend or rate per 1,000 residents.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between property crime rates and population density. As the population density decreased from 2,548 per square mile in 2010 to 2,233 in 2022, total property crimes also generally declined. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse correlation between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $32,670 in 2013 to $37,171 in 2022, property crime rates showed an overall decreasing trend.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can expect a continuation of the overall decreasing trend in total property crimes. Burglaries are likely to stabilize around 20-25 incidents per year, while larceny-theft may continue to fluctuate but remain in the 70-85 range annually. Motor vehicle thefts are predicted to remain relatively stable, averaging 5-7 incidents per year.
In summary, Claxton has demonstrated a generally improving picture in terms of property crime over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been seen in burglary rates, while other categories have shown more modest declines or stability. These trends, coupled with increasing median income and changing population dynamics, suggest a gradual enhancement of public safety in the city. However, the increasing share of state crime percentages in some categories indicates that the city may be facing unique challenges compared to state-wide trends, which may require targeted interventions to maintain and further improve its safety profile.
