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Property Crime Trends in Emerson, Georgia: A Decade of Fluctuations and Improvements
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Emerson, located in Georgia, has experienced notable fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes decreased from 34 to 24, representing a 29.4% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 3,212 to 3,248, a modest increase of 1.1%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a significant decline over time. In 2010, there were 3 burglaries reported, which decreased to just 1 in 2022, marking a 66.7% reduction. When considering population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people dropped from 0.93 in 2010 to 0.31 in 2022. The city's share of state burglaries remained relatively low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.09% over the years, with the highest percentage occurring in 2020. This downward trend in burglaries suggests improved home security measures or more effective law enforcement strategies.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, has also seen a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 28 reported cases, which fell to 18 in 2022, a 35.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people decreased from 8.72 in 2010 to 5.54 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny theft figures fluctuated between 0.03% and 0.10%, with the highest percentage recorded in 2019. This decline in larceny theft may indicate improved community awareness and crime prevention efforts.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more variable. In 2010, there were 3 reported cases, which increased to 5 in 2022, representing a 66.7% increase. However, when adjusting for population, the rate per 1,000 people only slightly increased from 0.93 in 2010 to 1.54 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts ranged from 0.01% to 0.29%, with the peak occurring in 2019. This increase, albeit small in absolute numbers, may warrant attention from local law enforcement.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There was 1 reported case in 2010, and no cases reported in most years, including 2022. The city's contribution to state arson figures ranged from 0% to 1.12%, with the highest percentage in 2019. The low occurrence of arson suggests it is not a significant concern for the community.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $58,173 in 2013 to $68,679 in 2022, total property crimes decreased from 58 to 24. Additionally, there's a slight positive correlation between homeownership rates and reduced property crime. The percentage of owner-occupied housing increased from 70% in 2013 to 81% in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a continued gradual decrease in overall property crime rates. Burglary and larceny theft are expected to maintain their downward trajectories, potentially reaching historic lows. Motor vehicle theft may stabilize or show a slight increase if current trends persist. Arson is predicted to remain at very low levels, with possibly no reported cases in some years.
In summary, Emerson has demonstrated a generally positive trend in property crime reduction over the past decade. The most significant improvements have been in burglary and larceny theft rates, while motor vehicle theft has shown a slight increase. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and homeownership rates, suggest a potentially improving quality of life for residents. However, ongoing vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial to maintain and further improve these positive trends in the coming years.
