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Property Crime Trends in Bristow, Oklahoma: A Study of Declining Rates Amid Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Bristow, Oklahoma presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends from 2010 to 2022. During this period, the city experienced a significant 34.3% decrease in total property crimes, from 166 in 2010 to 109 in 2022. This decline occurred alongside a modest 4.1% population growth, with the number of residents increasing from 5,423 to 5,647. The juxtaposition of falling crime rates and a growing population provides a unique context for analyzing Bristow's property crime landscape.
Burglary rates in Bristow have shown a notable downward trend. The number of burglaries decreased from 49 in 2010 to 24 in 2022, representing a 51% reduction. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 residents fell from 9.03 to 4.25 over the same period. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated between 0.11% and 0.38%, with the highest percentage recorded in 2017 and the lowest in 2018.
Larceny-theft, the most prevalent property crime in Bristow, also experienced a downward trend. Incidents decreased by 40.4% from 114 in 2010 to 68 in 2022, with a peak of 147 in 2017. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 21.02 to 12.04 during this period. Bristow's contribution to state larceny-theft figures remained relatively stable, ranging between 0.09% and 0.24%, suggesting that local trends largely mirrored state-wide patterns.
Motor vehicle theft in Bristow presented a more volatile pattern. Starting with just 3 incidents in 2010, it peaked at 30 in 2021 before decreasing to 17 in 2022. This represents a substantial 466.7% increase from 2010 to 2022, despite the recent downturn. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.55 to 3.01 during this period. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased significantly from 0.03% to 0.16%, suggesting a disproportionate rise compared to state trends.
Arson cases in Bristow were sporadic and relatively low. The highest number of arsons recorded was 5 in 2011, with several years reporting zero incidents. Due to the low and inconsistent numbers, meaningful trends or rates per 1,000 residents are difficult to establish. The city's contribution to state arson figures varied widely, from 0% in most years to a high of 0.71% in 2011.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals interesting patterns. Bristow's population density increased from 1,568 per square mile in 2010 to 1,633 in 2022, coinciding with the overall decrease in property crimes. This suggests that increased urbanization may have contributed to improved community vigilance or law enforcement efficiency. Additionally, the median income rose from $40,183 in 2013 to $42,146 in 2022, potentially indicating improved economic conditions that could contribute to reduced property crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued gradual decline in overall property crime rates. Based on existing trends, burglaries and larceny-theft incidents are likely to continue decreasing, potentially reaching around 20 and 60 incidents per year, respectively, by 2029. Motor vehicle thefts, having shown more volatility, may stabilize around 15-20 incidents annually. Arson cases are expected to remain low and sporadic.
In summary, Bristow has experienced a general downward trend in property crimes from 2010 to 2022, most notably in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive development has occurred against a backdrop of modest population growth and improving economic indicators. The most significant challenge appears to be in addressing motor vehicle thefts, which have shown a concerning increase. These trends, combined with the city's changing demographics and economic profile, paint a picture of a community that has made strides in public safety but still faces specific challenges in certain areas of property crime prevention.
