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Property Crime Surge in Unionville, Missouri: A Small City's Struggle with Declining Population
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Unionville, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over recent years. From 2010 to 2015, the total number of property crimes increased from 16 to 31, representing a 93.75% increase. During this same period, the population decreased from 2,751 to 2,639, a 4.07% reduction, creating a notable contrast between crime rates and population dynamics.
The burglary trend in the city shows significant fluctuations. In 2010, there were 8 burglaries, which decreased to 3 in 2012, but then rose again to 9 in 2014 before dropping to 7 in 2015. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people increased from 2.91 in 2010 to 2.65 in 2015, despite the overall decrease in population. The city's contribution to state burglaries increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2015, indicating a growing share of state-wide burglary incidents.
Larceny theft showed a consistent upward trend. Starting with 8 incidents in 2010, it rose to 24 in 2015, a 200% increase. The rate per 1,000 people grew from 2.91 in 2010 to 9.09 in 2015, a significant rise considering the population decline. The city's share of state larceny theft incidents doubled from 0.01% to 0.02% during this period, suggesting a faster increase in larceny theft compared to state averages.
Motor vehicle theft trends were more erratic. There were no reported incidents in 2010, 2014, and 2015. However, the city saw 2 incidents in 2011 and 2012, and 3 in 2013. The highest rate was 1.11 per 1,000 people in 2013. The city's contribution to state motor vehicle thefts peaked at 0.02% in 2011 and 2013 but dropped to 0% in subsequent years, indicating a volatile pattern in this crime category.
Arson data shows no reported incidents from 2010 to 2015, maintaining a consistent 0% contribution to state arson cases. This suggests that arson was not a significant concern for the city during this period.
A strong correlation appears between the rise in property crimes and the decline in median income. From 2013 to 2015, median income fell from $39,012 to $34,087, while property crimes increased. This suggests that economic factors may have influenced crime rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable inverse relationship between property crime rates and the percentage of owner-occupied housing, which fluctuated between 63% and 72% during the observed period.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, we can forecast that by 2029, Unionville may see a continued increase in property crimes, potentially reaching around 40-45 incidents annually if current trends persist. This projection assumes that economic conditions and population trends remain relatively stable.
In summary, Unionville has experienced a notable increase in property crimes, particularly in larceny theft, despite a declining population. The relationship between economic factors and crime rates appears significant, with lower median incomes correlating with higher crime rates. These trends underscore the importance of addressing both economic and public safety concerns in the city's future planning and policy decisions.
