Motor vehicle theft exhibited the most dramatic increase among property crimes. In 2010, there were 29 reported cases, which surged to 121 by 2022, a staggering 317.24% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 5.88 in 2010 to 19.87 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.22% to 0.50% over this period, suggesting that this crime type became a more significant issue in North Kansas City relative to the rest of the state. This trend may indicate a need for targeted interventions in vehicle security or increased surveillance in high-risk areas.

Arson cases in the city were relatively rare, with most years reporting zero incidents. The highest number recorded was 4 cases in 2016, representing 0.47% of state arsons that year. By 2022, there was 1 reported case, accounting for 0.16% of state arsons. The sporadic nature of these incidents makes it difficult to discern a clear trend, but the low numbers suggest that arson is not a major concern for the city.

Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong relationship between the increase in property crimes and population density. As the population density rose from 1,127 per square mile in 2010 to 1,392 in 2022, total property crimes increased correspondingly. Additionally, there seems to be an inverse correlation between property crime rates and median income. As median income fluctuated, with a general upward trend from $40,082 in 2013 to $45,725 in 2022, property crime rates showed overall growth, suggesting that economic factors may play a complex role in crime dynamics.

Applying predictive models based on these trends, it's forecasted that by 2029, North Kansas City may see property crimes increase to approximately 700-750 incidents annually. Larceny-theft is expected to remain the predominant form of property crime, potentially reaching 500-550 cases. Motor vehicle thefts might continue their upward trajectory, possibly exceeding 150 cases annually. Burglaries are predicted to stabilize or slightly decrease, potentially dropping below 10 cases per year.

In summary, North Kansas City has experienced a notable increase in property crimes, outpacing its population growth. The most significant changes have been the sharp rise in motor vehicle thefts and larceny-theft, contrasted with a substantial decrease in burglaries. These trends, coupled with the city's changing demographics and economic indicators, paint a picture of a community in transition, facing evolving challenges in maintaining public safety and property security. The forecasted continuation of these trends underscores the importance of targeted strategies to address specific types of property crimes, particularly in the areas of vehicle protection and retail security.