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Property Crime Trends in St. Joseph, Missouri: A Decade of Mixed Results
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
St. Joseph, Missouri, a city with a rich history dating back to its founding in 1843, has experienced significant fluctuations in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes in the city increased by 14.9%, from 3,605 to 3,068 incidents. This change occurred alongside a population decline of 5.6%, from 74,853 in 2010 to 70,682 in 2022.
Burglary trends in the city have shown a notable decrease over time. In 2010, there were 870 burglaries reported, which dropped to 362 by 2022, representing a 58.4% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 11.62 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 5.12 per 1,000 in 2022. Despite this decline, the city's share of state burglaries increased slightly from 2.69% in 2010 to 2.73% in 2022. This suggests that while burglaries have decreased locally, the reduction may be even more pronounced at the state level.
Larceny theft, the most common property crime in the city, saw a slight decrease over the period. In 2010, there were 2,547 larceny thefts reported, compared to 2,251 in 2022, a 11.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents decreased from 34.03 in 2010 to 31.85 in 2022. However, the city's share of state larceny thefts increased from 2.24% to 2.89% during this period, indicating that the city's larceny theft rate may be declining slower than the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends show a concerning increase. In 2010, there were 188 reported cases, which rose to 455 by 2022, a substantial 142% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents more than doubled from 2.51 in 2010 to 6.44 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 1.42% to 1.88%, suggesting this trend may be more pronounced locally than at the state level.
Arson cases in the city have remained relatively stable, with 16 reported in 2010 and 17 in 2022. However, when adjusted for population, the rate increased slightly from 0.21 to 0.24 per 1,000 residents. The city's share of state arson cases increased from 1.54% to 2.77%, indicating that arson may be becoming a more significant issue in the city compared to the state average.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a moderate inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $41,532 in 2013 to $53,012 in 2022, overall property crime rates showed a general downward trend. However, this correlation is not consistent across all types of property crime, particularly motor vehicle theft.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (until 2029), we anticipate a continued decrease in burglaries, potentially reaching around 300 cases annually. Larceny theft rates may stabilize or slightly decrease, hovering around 2,200 cases per year. Motor vehicle thefts are likely to continue increasing, potentially reaching 550-600 cases annually. Arson cases are expected to remain relatively stable, with slight fluctuations around 15-20 cases per year.
In summary, St. Joseph has shown mixed trends in property crime over the past decade. While burglaries and larceny thefts have decreased, motor vehicle thefts have risen significantly. The city's share of state property crimes has generally increased, suggesting that local trends may be diverging from state averages. The relationship between rising median income and declining overall property crime rates offers a positive indicator for the city's future. However, targeted efforts to address the rising motor vehicle theft rates will be crucial for improving overall public safety in the coming years.
