Motor vehicle theft presents a more complex picture. The number of incidents increased from 8 in 2010 to 22 in 2022, a 175% rise. However, when accounting for population growth, the rate per 1,000 residents increased less dramatically, from 0.80 to 1.71, a 113.8% increase. Notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts rose from 0.06% to 0.09%, indicating that this crime category has become a growing concern relative to state averages.

Arson data is limited, with incidents reported only in 2016, 2020, and 2022, each year showing just one case. This sporadic occurrence makes it difficult to establish a clear trend. However, the consistent low numbers suggest that arson is not a significant ongoing issue in the city.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 901 per square mile in 2010 to 1,160 in 2022, overall property crime rates decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization has not led to higher crime rates. The median income rose from $97,013 in 2013 to $106,862 in 2022, which may have contributed to the overall reduction in property crimes, particularly burglary and larceny-theft.

The racial composition of the city has remained predominantly white, though with a slight decrease from 91% in 2013 to 85% in 2022. This period coincides with the overall decrease in property crimes, but the change is not significant enough to draw strong conclusions about its impact on crime rates.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continuation of current patterns. Burglary and larceny-theft rates are likely to continue their downward trend, potentially reaching historic lows. However, motor vehicle theft may continue to pose a challenge, with rates possibly increasing further if current trends persist. Arson is expected to remain a rare occurrence, with sporadic incidents not forming a predictable pattern.

In summary, Eureka has experienced a notable decrease in overall property crime rates despite significant population growth. The reduction in burglary and larceny-theft rates is particularly impressive, suggesting effective law enforcement strategies and community engagement. However, the rise in motor vehicle thefts presents an area for focused attention in the coming years. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and stable community demographics, paint a picture of a city successfully managing property crime challenges while experiencing urban growth.