Robbery incidents have been rare in Pleasant Valley. The data shows only three years with reported robberies: 2 cases in 2011, 1 case in 2020, and 1 case in 2022. The robbery rate per 1,000 residents was highest in 2011 at 0.57, decreasing to 0.29 in 2020 and 0.30 in 2022. The city's contribution to state robbery statistics was minimal, reaching 0.03% in 2011, 2020, and 2022.

Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of cases ranged from a low of 1 in 2015 and 2019 to a high of 8 in 2017. In 2022, there were 7 aggravated assault cases. The rate per 1,000 residents varied from 0.28 in 2015 to 2.20 in 2017. The city's contribution to state aggravated assault statistics peaked at 0.05% in 2017 and stood at 0.04% in 2022.

There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 2,823 per square mile in 2010 to 2,632 per square mile in 2022, there was a general increase in violent crime incidents, particularly in aggravated assaults. This suggests that other factors beyond population density may be influencing crime rates.

The racial composition of Pleasant Valley has remained relatively stable, with the white population consistently representing the majority. In 2022, 88% of the population was white, which is an increase from 82% in 2013. This stability in racial distribution does not appear to have a strong correlation with violent crime trends.

Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates may continue to show an upward trend over the next five years (until 2029). The number of aggravated assaults could potentially increase to around 10-12 cases per year, while rape and robbery incidents might occur more frequently, possibly 2-3 cases each annually. However, the murder rate is expected to remain at zero, maintaining the city's positive record in this regard.

In conclusion, Pleasant Valley has experienced varying trends in violent crime over the past decade, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. Despite a decreasing population, the city has seen an overall increase in violent crime incidents, particularly in recent years. The stability in racial composition and the consistent absence of murders are positive factors, but the rising trend in other violent crimes suggests a need for targeted crime prevention strategies. As the city moves forward, addressing the factors contributing to aggravated assaults should be a priority to ensure the safety and well-being of its residents.