Loading Content...
Property Crime Surge in Normandy, Missouri: A Decade of Fluctuations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Normandy, located in Missouri, presents an intriguing case study in property crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the total number of property crimes increased by 74.6%, rising from 173 to 302 incidents. This significant uptick occurred despite a population decrease of 4.5% during the same period, with the population falling from 5,939 to 5,674 residents.
Burglary trends in the city have shown considerable fluctuation over the years. In 2010, there were 68 burglaries, which decreased to 36 by 2022, representing a 47.1% reduction. However, when adjusted for population, the burglary rate per 1,000 people only decreased slightly from 11.4 to 6.3. The city's share of state burglaries increased from 0.21% in 2010 to 0.27% in 2022, indicating that while local burglaries decreased, they did so at a slower rate than the state average. This suggests that despite improvements, burglary remains a persistent concern for the community.
Larceny theft incidents have shown a more consistent upward trend. In 2010, there were 92 larceny thefts, which increased to 145 by 2022, marking a 57.6% rise. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 15.5 to 25.6, signifying a growing problem relative to the population size. The city's share of state larceny thefts more than doubled from 0.08% to 0.19%, indicating that this type of crime is becoming increasingly concentrated in the area compared to state averages. This trend suggests a need for targeted strategies to address petty theft and related offenses.
Motor vehicle theft has seen the most dramatic increase among property crimes. In 2010, there were 13 incidents, which skyrocketed to 121 by 2022, representing an 830.8% increase. The rate per 1,000 people surged from 2.2 to 21.3, indicating a severe escalation relative to the population. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased fivefold from 0.1% to 0.5%, suggesting that this crime has become a significant local issue that outpaces state trends. This alarming increase calls for immediate attention and targeted interventions.
Arson incidents have remained relatively low but show inconsistent patterns. In 2010, no arsons were reported, while in 2022, there were 2 incidents. The rate per 1,000 people in 2022 was 0.35, and the city's share of state arsons was 0.33%. While not as prevalent as other property crimes, the sporadic nature of arson incidents warrants ongoing vigilance.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between property crime rates and median income. As median income increased from $37,025 in 2013 to $41,586 in 2022, property crime rates initially decreased but then rose sharply in later years. This suggests that while rising incomes may have initially suppressed crime, other factors eventually overshadowed this effect. Additionally, there's a notable correlation between the increase in property crimes and the slight decrease in owner-occupied housing, which fell from 51% in 2017 to 43% in 2022.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, if current patterns persist, we can expect to see continued increases in overall property crime rates, with motor vehicle theft likely remaining the fastest-growing category. By 2029, five years from now, total property crimes could potentially reach 450-500 incidents annually, with motor vehicle thefts possibly accounting for 40-50% of these crimes.
In summary, Normandy faces significant challenges in combating property crime, particularly in the areas of motor vehicle theft and larceny. The disproportionate increase in these crimes relative to population changes and state averages highlights the need for targeted interventions. The correlation between crime rates, income levels, and home ownership suggests that economic factors play a crucial role in the city's crime dynamics. As the community looks to the future, addressing these trends will be essential for improving public safety and overall quality of life for residents.
