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Property Crime Trends in Vandalia, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Vandalia, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2019, the total number of property crimes decreased significantly from 85 to 30, representing a 64.7% reduction. During this same period, the population grew from 4,415 to 4,676, an increase of 5.9%.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable decline over the years. In 2010, there were 14 burglaries reported, which dropped to zero by 2019. This represents a 100% decrease in burglary incidents. When considering the population trends, the burglary rate per 1,000 people decreased from 3.17 in 2010 to 0 in 2019. The city's share of state burglaries fluctuated over the years, ranging from 0.02% to 0.04% of the state total, with no clear trend emerging. This substantial reduction in burglaries suggests improved security measures or successful crime prevention strategies implemented within the community.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also experienced a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 65 reported cases, which decreased to 28 by 2019, marking a 56.9% reduction. The larceny-theft rate per 1,000 people dropped from 14.72 in 2010 to 5.99 in 2019. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.06% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2019, indicating that the local reduction outpaced the state-wide trend. This decline in larceny-theft could be attributed to increased community vigilance or effective policing strategies.
Motor vehicle theft in the city has remained relatively low throughout the period. In 2010, there were 6 reported cases, which decreased to 2 in 2019, a 66.7% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 1.36 in 2010 to 0.43 in 2019. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated between 0.01% and 0.05%, with no clear trend. The low and decreasing numbers suggest that motor vehicle theft is not a major concern for the city.
Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and infrequent. There were no reported arsons in 2010, 2013, and from 2016 to 2019. The highest number of arson cases was 2 in 2011, representing 0.21% of the state's total. Given the low frequency, it's difficult to establish a clear trend, but the data suggests that arson is not a persistent problem in the community.
Examining correlations between property crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 1,967 per square mile in 2010 to 2,084 in 2019, property crimes decreased, suggesting that increased urbanization did not lead to higher crime rates. Additionally, the median income rose from $35,284 in 2013 to $44,514 in 2019, coinciding with the decrease in property crimes. This could indicate that improved economic conditions may have contributed to reduced criminal activity.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued decline in overall property crime rates. Based on the historical data and current trends, it's projected that the total number of property crimes could potentially decrease to around 20-25 incidents per year by 2029. However, this prediction assumes that current socioeconomic conditions and crime prevention measures remain relatively stable.
In summary, Vandalia has experienced a significant and consistent decrease in property crimes over the past decade, with notable reductions in burglaries and larceny-thefts. This positive trend, coupled with population growth and increasing median income, paints a picture of a community that has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents. The projected continuation of this downward trend in property crimes bodes well for the future security and prosperity of Vandalia.
