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Festus, Missouri: Violent Crime Trends in a Growing Small City
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Festus, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, with a notable peak of 73 incidents in 2015 and a low of 37 in 2010. Over this period, the population grew from 16,402 in 2010 to 18,776 in 2022, representing a 14.5% increase.
Murder rates in the city have remained relatively low, with most years reporting zero incidents. However, there were two notable exceptions: one murder in 2015 and another in 2022. These incidents represented 0.24% and 0.19% of the state's total murders in their respective years. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.057 in 2015 and 0.053 in 2022, showing a slight decrease despite the population growth.
Rape incidents have fluctuated over the years, ranging from a low of 1 in 2020 to a high of 7 in 2016. The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked at 0.395 in 2016 and was at its lowest at 0.055 in 2020. The percentage of state rape cases attributable to the city varied, with the highest being 0.36% in 2016 and the lowest at 0.05% in 2020. This variability suggests that local factors may have a significant impact on these incidents.
Robbery trends show a general decline over the period. The highest number of robberies (6) occurred in 2014, representing 0.12% of the state's total. By 2022, there were no reported robberies. The robbery rate per 1,000 people decreased from 0.344 in 2014 to zero in 2022, indicating a positive trend in this category of violent crime.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of incidents peaked at 64 in 2015, representing 0.4% of the state's total. In 2022, there were 32 aggravated assaults, accounting for 0.18% of the state's cases. The rate per 1,000 people was highest in 2015 at 3.674 and decreased to 1.704 in 2022, showing an overall improvement despite population growth.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a relationship between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density increased from 2,777 per square mile in 2010 to 3,179 in 2022, there was an overall increase in violent crime incidents, although not consistently year-over-year. Additionally, the racial composition of the city has shown slight changes, with the white population decreasing from 94% in 2013 to 89% in 2022, while other racial groups saw small increases. This demographic shift coincides with some fluctuations in crime rates, though a direct causal relationship cannot be established without further analysis.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Festus may continue to fluctuate but with a potential slight downward trend over the next five years (up to 2029). The city's growing population and changing demographics may continue to influence crime rates, but the overall trend suggests a possible stabilization or modest decrease in violent crime incidents per capita.
In summary, Festus has experienced varying trends in violent crime from 2010 to 2022, with some categories showing improvement while others fluctuated. The most significant positive trend has been in robbery rates, which have decreased to zero. Aggravated assault remains the primary concern, though its rate has also shown improvement in recent years. As the city continues to grow and evolve, maintaining focus on crime prevention strategies will be crucial in fostering a safe environment for its residents.
