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Violent Crime Trends in Archie, Missouri: A Decade of Low Incidence Amidst Population Growth
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Loading Content...
Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Archie, located in Missouri, is a small urban area with a population that has fluctuated over the years. This analysis examines the violent crime trends in the city from 2010 to 2019, during which time the population grew from 2,531 to 2,561, an increase of 1.2%. The total number of violent crimes reported during this period varied, with notable fluctuations in the crime rate.
Murder trends in Archie have remained consistently low throughout the observed period. From 2010 to 2019, there were no reported cases of murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. This translates to a murder rate of 0 per 1,000 people, which has remained unchanged despite population fluctuations. The city's contribution to the state's murder statistics has consistently been 0%, indicating that Archie has not been a significant factor in Missouri's overall murder rates.
Rape incidents in the city have been sporadic. In 2015, there was one reported case of rape, which corresponded to 0.35 incidents per 1,000 people and represented 0.05% of the state's total rape cases for that year. However, in all other years within the dataset, there were no reported rape cases. This isolated incident in 2015 coincided with a population spike to 2,837 residents, the highest in the observed period.
Robbery trends in Archie have been minimal to non-existent. Throughout the entire period from 2010 to 2019, there were no reported robbery cases. This translates to a consistent robbery rate of 0 per 1,000 people and a 0% contribution to the state's robbery statistics. The absence of robberies has remained constant despite population changes and economic fluctuations as indicated by median rent variations.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent form of violent crime in the city. The number of aggravated assaults fluctuated over the years, with peaks in 2015 and 2017. In 2015, there were 4 cases reported, equating to 1.41 incidents per 1,000 people and representing 0.03% of the state's total. In 2017, 4 cases were again reported, but due to a slight population decrease, this resulted in a rate of 1.45 per 1,000 people. The city's contribution to the state's aggravated assault cases ranged from 0% to 0.03%, with the highest percentage occurring in 2015.
When examining correlations, there appears to be a weak positive relationship between population density and the incidence of aggravated assaults. For instance, the peak in aggravated assaults in 2015 coincided with the highest population density of 1,890 people per square mile. However, this correlation is not consistent across all years, suggesting that other factors may play a role in violent crime rates.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates in Archie will remain relatively low over the next five years (up to 2029). Aggravated assault is likely to continue being the most common form of violent crime, potentially fluctuating between 1 to 4 cases per year. Murder, rape, and robbery rates are expected to remain at or near zero, barring any significant changes in socioeconomic conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Archie has maintained a relatively low violent crime rate over the observed period, with aggravated assault being the primary concern. The city's contribution to Missouri's overall violent crime statistics has been minimal, reflecting its small size and generally peaceful nature. While there have been some fluctuations in crime rates, particularly in aggravated assaults, the overall trend suggests a stable, low-crime environment in Archie for the foreseeable future.
