Motor vehicle theft incidents have increased over the years, from just 1 case in 2010 to 7 in 2022. The rate per 1,000 people rose from 0.20 in 2010 to 1.23 in 2022, a concerning trend that outpaces population growth. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts also increased from 0.01% in 2010 to 0.03% in 2022, with a peak of 0.08% in 2018 and 2020. This upward trend suggests a growing challenge in vehicle security or organized theft activities.

Arson cases in the city have been sporadic and relatively rare. The data shows zero incidents for most years, with occasional occurrences: 2 cases in 2014 and 2020, and 1 case in 2018. The rate per 1,000 people for these years was 0.37, 0.36, and 0.18, respectively. The city's contribution to state arson cases was highest in 2020 at 0.26%. The infrequent nature of arson incidents makes it difficult to establish a clear trend, but it remains a concern for public safety when it does occur.

Examining correlations between property crime trends and socioeconomic factors reveals some interesting patterns. There appears to be a moderate negative correlation between median income and property crime rates. As the median income increased from $38,027 in 2013 to $47,525 in 2022, there was a general downward trend in overall property crime incidents. Additionally, the percentage of owner-occupied housing units rose from 62% in 2013 to 69% in 2022, which coincided with a decrease in property crimes, suggesting a possible link between homeownership and community safety.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we anticipate a slight overall decrease in property crimes. Burglary rates are expected to stabilize around 20 incidents per year, while larceny theft may continue to fluctuate but remain below 150 cases annually. Motor vehicle thefts could potentially increase to around 15-20 incidents per year if current trends persist. Arson cases are likely to remain sporadic and low in number.

In summary, Camdenton has shown resilience in managing property crime rates despite population growth. The most significant improvements have been in burglary reduction, while motor vehicle theft emerges as an area of growing concern. The correlation between rising incomes, increased homeownership, and declining property crime rates suggests that continued economic development and community investment may contribute to further crime reduction. However, targeted efforts to address vehicle thefts and maintain vigilance against sporadic arson incidents will be crucial for maintaining public safety in the coming years.