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Zip Code 63821: Declining Home Values and Shifting Ownership Patterns in Arbyrd, Missouri
CATEGORY
Property Value
DATA
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
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Property Value
Percent Owner Occupied
Housing Prices
Median Rent
Population
Zip code 63821, located in Arbyrd, Missouri, presents an interesting case study of homeownership and rental trends in a small, rural community. Over the past decade, this area has experienced fluctuations in both ownership rates and housing prices, reflecting broader economic shifts and local dynamics.
The homeownership rate in zip code 63821 has shown a gradual decline from 2013 to 2022. In 2013, the ownership rate stood at 72%, remaining relatively stable until 2020. However, a more significant drop occurred between 2021 and 2022, with the ownership rate falling from 71% to 66%. This 5 percentage point decrease represents a notable shift in the local housing market. Interestingly, this decline in homeownership coincided with a substantial increase in average home prices. The average home price in 2022 was $67,085, which then decreased to $57,648 in 2023 and further to $48,525 in 2024, indicating a volatile housing market in recent years.
The relationship between federal interest rates and homeownership rates in this zip code appears to follow general economic principles. For instance, the period of low interest rates from 2013 to 2020 (ranging from 0.08% to 0.4%) corresponded with relatively stable homeownership rates around 72-74%. However, as interest rates began to rise significantly in 2022 (1.68%) and 2023 (5.02%), we observed a sharp decline in homeownership to 66% in 2022. This trend suggests that higher interest rates may have made homeownership less affordable for some residents in the area.
Conversely, the rental market in zip code 63821 has shown an upward trend. The percentage of renters increased from 25% in 2019 to 34% in 2022, a 9 percentage point increase. This rise in renters corresponds with fluctuations in average rent prices. The average rent increased from $611 in 2019 to $621 in 2020, then dropped to $499 in 2021 before rising again to $616 in 2022. These changes in rent prices, coupled with the increase in renters, suggest a growing demand for rental properties in the area, possibly due to decreased affordability of homeownership.
The years 2023 and 2024 have brought significant changes to the housing market in zip code 63821. Average home prices have continued to decline, reaching $57,648 in 2023 and further dropping to $48,525 in 2024. This represents a substantial 27.7% decrease from the 2022 average price of $67,085. Simultaneously, federal interest rates have risen sharply, reaching 5.02% in 2023 and 5.33% in 2024. These high interest rates, combined with falling home prices, create a complex market dynamic that may influence both buyers and sellers in the area.
Looking ahead, predictive models suggest that the average home prices in zip code 63821 may continue to decrease over the next five years, potentially stabilizing around $40,000 by 2029 if current trends persist. Average rent prices, on the other hand, are projected to show modest increases, potentially reaching around $650 by 2029. However, these predictions are subject to change based on various economic factors and local market conditions.
In summary, zip code 63821 has experienced a notable shift from homeownership to renting in recent years, with a significant decline in homeownership rates coinciding with rising home prices and interest rates. The rental market has grown, with increasing renter percentages and fluctuating rent prices. The recent sharp decline in home prices, coupled with high interest rates, presents a unique market situation that will likely continue to shape housing trends in this area in the coming years.
