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Property Crime Trends in Odessa, Missouri: A Decade of Significant Decline
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Odessa, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in property crime trends over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, the city experienced a significant decrease in total property crimes, dropping from 113 incidents in 2010 to 46 in 2022, representing a 59.3% reduction. This decline occurred against a backdrop of population fluctuation, with the city's population decreasing slightly from 7,187 in 2010 to 6,760 in 2022, a 5.9% decrease.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a notable downward trend. In 2010, there were 19 burglaries reported, which dropped to 7 in 2022, marking a 63.2% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 2.64 per 1,000 residents in 2010 to 1.04 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, while the number of burglaries decreased, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated. In 2010, the city accounted for 0.06% of state burglaries, which decreased to 0.05% by 2022, indicating that the city's burglary reduction outpaced the state average.
Larceny-theft, the most common property crime in the city, also saw a substantial decrease. In 2010, there were 85 larceny-theft incidents, which reduced to 35 in 2022, a 58.8% decrease. The rate per 1,000 residents dropped from 11.83 in 2010 to 5.18 in 2022. The city's contribution to state larceny-theft figures decreased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, suggesting a more significant improvement in this area compared to the state average.
Motor vehicle theft trends have been more volatile. In 2010, there were 9 reported incidents, which decreased to 4 in 2022, a 55.6% reduction. The rate per 1,000 residents fell from 1.25 in 2010 to 0.59 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts decreased from 0.07% in 2010 to 0.02% in 2022, indicating a substantial improvement relative to state figures.
Arson incidents in the city have been rare and sporadic. There was 1 reported case in 2010, representing 0.1% of state arsons. By 2022, no arson cases were reported, maintaining this trend from 2018 onwards. The infrequency of arson cases makes it difficult to establish meaningful trends or rates per population.
Examining correlations between property crime and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the median income increased from $56,775 in 2013 to $67,804 in 2022, there was a corresponding decrease in property crimes. This suggests a potential inverse relationship between economic prosperity and property crime rates. Additionally, the slight increase in homeownership from 72% in 2013 to 77% in 2022 coincided with the overall decrease in property crimes, potentially indicating that higher ownership rates contribute to community stability and lower crime rates.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029) suggests a continued downward trajectory, albeit at a slower rate. Based on the current trends, we might expect total property crimes to stabilize around 40-45 incidents per year by 2029, barring any significant changes in socioeconomic conditions or law enforcement strategies.
In summary, Odessa has demonstrated a significant improvement in property crime rates across all categories over the past decade. The most substantial reductions were seen in burglary and larceny-theft, with motor vehicle theft also showing considerable improvement. These positive trends, coupled with increasing median income and homeownership rates, paint a picture of a community that has made substantial progress in enhancing public safety and quality of life for its residents.
