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Crime
Violent Crime
Median Rent
Racial Distributions
Population
Winona, located in Missouri, presents an interesting case study in violent crime trends. From 2010 to 2021, the city experienced fluctuations in its total violent crime incidents, ranging from a high of 13 in 2012 to a low of 3 in 2015 and 2021. Over this period, the total violent crime incidents decreased by 62.5%, from 8 in 2010 to 3 in 2021. Concurrently, the city's population declined by 25.8%, from 3,148 in 2010 to 2,335 in 2021.
Murder trends in the city have been relatively stable, with only one incident reported in 2014. This single occurrence represented 0.3% of the state's murders that year. The murder rate per 1,000 people was 0.33 in 2014, which was an anomaly in an otherwise murder-free period. This isolated incident suggests that murder is not a persistent issue in the city.
Rape incidents have been sporadic, with reported cases in 2013 (1 case, 0.06% of state total), 2015 (1 case, 0.05% of state total), and 2016 (2 cases, 0.1% of state total). The rape rate per 1,000 people peaked in 2016 at 0.67. The inconsistent nature of these incidents makes it challenging to identify a clear trend, but it's notable that no rapes were reported in the most recent data from 2021.
Robbery occurrences have been infrequent, with single incidents reported in 2011 (0.02% of state total), 2013 (0.02% of state total), 2015 (0.02% of state total), and 2016 (0.02% of state total). The robbery rate per 1,000 people never exceeded 0.35 during this period. The data suggests that robbery is not a significant ongoing concern in the city.
Aggravated assault has been the most prevalent violent crime in the city. The number of incidents fluctuated from a high of 13 in 2012 (0.09% of state total) to a low of 1 in 2015 (0.01% of state total). In 2021, there were 3 aggravated assaults (0.02% of state total). The rate per 1,000 people varied, peaking at 4.53 in 2012 and dropping to 1.28 in 2021. Despite fluctuations, aggravated assault remains the primary contributor to violent crime in the area.
There appears to be a correlation between population density and violent crime rates. As the population density decreased from 826 per square mile in 2010 to 613 per square mile in 2021, the total violent crime incidents also generally decreased. This suggests that lower population density may contribute to reduced violent crime rates in the city.
Racial demographics show a slight correlation with violent crime trends. As the percentage of white residents decreased from 97% in 2013 to 89% in 2021, and the percentage of residents identifying as two or more races increased from 0% to 10%, violent crime rates generally declined. However, this correlation should be interpreted cautiously due to the small population size and limited crime incidents.
Applying predictive models based on the available data, it's projected that violent crime rates will continue to remain low or potentially decrease slightly over the next five years (up to 2029). The city may experience between 2 to 5 violent crime incidents annually, with aggravated assault likely remaining the most common type of violent crime.
In summary, Winona has demonstrated a general decline in violent crime incidents from 2010 to 2021, despite some fluctuations. The most significant violent crime concern remains aggravated assault, while other types of violent crime occur infrequently. The decreasing population and density appear to correlate with the reduction in violent crime rates. As the city continues to evolve demographically, maintaining vigilance and community-based crime prevention strategies will be crucial in sustaining and potentially improving upon these positive trends in violent crime reduction.