Motor vehicle theft has seen an increase over the years. In 2010, there were 3 reported cases, which increased to 9 in 2022, representing a 200% increase. The rate per 1,000 residents rose from 0.51 in 2010 to 1.19 in 2022. More notably, the city's share of state motor vehicle thefts increased from 0.02% in 2010 to 0.04% in 2022, suggesting that this type of crime has become relatively more prevalent in Lake Lotawana compared to the state average.

Arson incidents have remained consistently at zero throughout the reported period, indicating that this particular crime is not a significant issue for the city.

Examining correlations between crime trends and demographic factors reveals some interesting patterns. As the population density increased from 567 per square mile in 2010 to 735 in 2022, there was a corresponding rise in motor vehicle thefts. Additionally, the median income growth from $99,329 in 2013 to $126,898 in 2022 coincides with a decrease in burglaries, suggesting that improved economic conditions may contribute to reduced property crimes of this nature.

The percentage of owner-occupied housing units increased from 88% in 2013 to 95% in 2022, which correlates with the overall decrease in property crimes, particularly burglaries. This trend might indicate that higher home ownership rates contribute to a more stable and secure community.

Racial demographics show a slight decrease in the white population from 94% in 2013 to 86% in 2022, with small increases in other racial groups. However, there doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between these changes and property crime trends.

Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends for the next five years (up to 2029), we can anticipate the following: 1. Burglaries are likely to remain low, possibly stabilizing at 1-2 incidents per year. 2. Larceny-theft may continue its slight downward trend, potentially reaching 15-16 incidents annually. 3. Motor vehicle thefts could continue to increase, possibly reaching 12-14 incidents per year if current trends persist. 4. Arson incidents are expected to remain at or near zero.

In summary, Lake Lotawana has experienced a complex evolution in property crime trends amidst significant population growth. The most notable changes include a substantial decrease in burglaries, a slight decline in larceny-thefts, and an increase in motor vehicle thefts. These trends, coupled with rising median incomes and high home ownership rates, suggest a changing landscape of property crime in the city. As the community continues to grow and evolve, ongoing monitoring and adaptive law enforcement strategies will be crucial in maintaining and improving public safety.