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Wilson, NC: Property Crime Trends and Economic Correlations
CATEGORY
Crime
DATA
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
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Crime
Property Crime
Percent Owner Occupied
Median Income
Population
Wilson, located in North Carolina, has experienced significant changes in property crime rates over the past decade. From 2010 to 2022, total property crimes decreased by 45.6%, from 2,151 to 1,171 incidents. This substantial reduction occurred while the city's population declined slightly by 2.1%, from 55,563 in 2010 to 54,424 in 2022.
Burglary rates in the city have shown a dramatic decrease over time. In 2010, there were 642 burglaries, which dropped to 187 in 2022, representing a 70.9% decrease. When adjusted for population, the burglary rate fell from 11.6 per 1,000 people in 2010 to 3.4 per 1,000 in 2022. Interestingly, the city's share of state burglaries fluctuated, starting at 1.19% in 2010, peaking at 1.77% in 2018, and then declining to 0.76% by 2022. This trend suggests that while burglaries decreased citywide, the reduction was less pronounced compared to the state average until recent years.
Larceny-theft incidents also showed a significant downward trend. In 2010, there were 1,413 larceny-thefts, which decreased to 907 in 2022, a 35.8% reduction. The rate per 1,000 people dropped from 25.4 in 2010 to 16.7 in 2022. The city's proportion of state larceny-thefts remained relatively stable, ranging from 1.09% in 2010 to 0.76% in 2022, indicating that the city's larceny-theft reduction generally aligned with statewide trends.
Motor vehicle theft exhibited more volatility but ultimately decreased. There were 96 incidents in 2010, which rose to a peak of 158 in 2018 before declining to 77 in 2022, representing a 19.8% overall decrease. The rate per 1,000 people changed from 1.7 in 2010 to 1.4 in 2022. The city's share of state motor vehicle thefts fluctuated, starting at 0.91% in 2010, peaking at 1.89% in 2018, and then dropping to 0.53% by 2022, suggesting a more significant recent improvement compared to state averages.
Arson cases in the city showed an overall increase, despite some fluctuations. From 4 incidents in 2010, the number rose to 16 in 2022, a 300% increase. The rate per 1,000 people increased from 0.07 in 2010 to 0.29 in 2022. The city's proportion of state arsons grew from 0.39% in 2010 to 1.82% in 2022, indicating a concerning trend relative to state figures.
Examining correlations, there appears to be a strong inverse relationship between median income and property crime rates. As median income increased from $44,775 in 2013 to $51,365 in 2021, property crimes decreased from 2,321 in 2012 to 1,227 in 2021. Additionally, the slight increase in home ownership rates from 52% in 2015 to 54% in 2022 coincided with the continued decrease in property crimes.
Applying predictive models to forecast property crime trends, we anticipate a continued overall decrease in property crimes by approximately 20-25% over the next seven years (until 2029). However, arson cases may continue to rise, potentially increasing by 30-40% if current trends persist.
In summary, Wilson has made significant strides in reducing most types of property crime over the past decade, particularly in burglary and larceny-theft. The correlation between rising median incomes and decreasing crime rates suggests economic improvements may have played a role in this positive trend. However, the increase in arson cases remains a concern that warrants attention. As the city moves forward, maintaining focus on economic development and targeted strategies to address arson could further enhance public safety and quality of life for its residents.
